The Colorado Midterm: Last Take Before the Count

“While it is true that recent elections have trended in favor of Democrats within the state, and the make up of Colorado’s government has Democrats in charge of all the levers of power, it disregards one of the fundamental laws of politics: The Pendulum Swings.”

I wrote those words in May of 2013 in response to a Denver Post article that had declared Colorado to be “between Air Force and Midnight on the blue scale.” I am sure Curtis Hubbard, the former Denver Post editorial page writer who moved on to the a left wing messaging shop since his declaration, is probably confused by the recent turn of even in Colorado politics. Especially the endorsement by his former paper of his ideological opponent and personal boogie man, [mc_name name=’Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000562′ ].

Had Hubbard, or anyone else for that matter, read my post in May of 2013 they might have seen some of this coming. On issues like guns, school choice, taxes, and even the economy, the Colorado Democrats of 2013 ignored the people of Colorado. By November of 2013 we’d see the Colorado Republicans prevail in two historic recall elections which revolved around Democratic overreach on gun control, along with defeating an education finance overhaul that would have put the taxpayers on the hook for millions more than they already pay.

While Democrats were making claims that they had already won the argument and just needed the right turnout to get to 50% +1, the people of Colorado were noticing that the Democrats were a one trick pony.

As the 2014 cycle began Colorado was already showing signs of movement away from the Democrats. The roll out of Obamacare was disastrous, and the propaganda campaign put together by the best the Colorado left had to offer had been openly mocked across the nation. To ad insult to injury, Udall was attacking state agencies that reported Health Care policy cancellations.

For Hickenlooper things were no better. The video recordings of his meeting with the sheriffs, the official call logs showing he lied about contacting Mayor Bloomberg during the gun control debate, the revelation that Hickenlooper only signed one of the gun control bill because a staffer promised they would, all of these pointed to bad times ahead for the state’s most beloved bartender.

When the campaigns began in earnest Udall never managed to crown from the uterus, and Hickenlooper just seemed to lack aim and focus. And unfortunately for both there was no GOP division in the primary, as was seen in 2010 in both the Senate and Gubernatorial elections. Nor was the calendar between the primary and the general election so condensed.

Now, on election day 2014, four years after the disaster of 2010, and two years removed from the disaster of 2012, the polls show the GOP ready to win not only the Senate seat, but quite possibly the the race for Governor.

As of this morning, we have yet to see the Democrats vaunted GOTV operation actually get out the vote. At least not to the point that they can make up the margins with just today’s ballots. From the data I have seen the Democrats need to pick up 47% of the 500,000 ballots that are still expected to be returned today statewide in order to get the electorate to reflect the 37% makeup the Dems need according to the last PPP poll of the Gardner/Udall race.

First we were told we would see their operational effect about 6 days out, then they said wait for the weekend, now they are grasping at a thin hope that someone shows up tomorrow. In fact Udall is so desperate for youth voters to show up, a group that has traditionally favored the Democrats, that he is holding 3 separate GOTV events on 3 separate College campuses. Honestly, that is not where a candidates wants to be on election day.

At this point, I am feeling very confident about our chances tonight in Colorado.

It is a fundamental law of politics that the pendulum swings, those who forget this law end up making pronouncements of Permanent Republican Majorities or the Emerging Democratic Majority, or how a fundamentally purple state is now closer to midnight blue.

Of course, those who do remember this law will be poised to jump on the pendulum as it swings their direction. [mc_name name=’Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’G000562′ ] and Bob Beauprez certainly have.



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