This one’s about philosophy, science and chaotic systems.
H/T Caleb Howe, who called attention to an AP Science article today:
Scientists go ‘gaga’ to find creatures beneath 600 feet of ice
A borehole through 600 feet of Antarctic sea ice discovers two new critters: a sort of shrimp, and a jellyfish, living in a region that no scientist predicted. Until they’re proven tasty in a remoulade, I really couldn’t care less, but here’s the money quote from the lead researcher:
“It’s pretty amazing when you find a huge puzzle like that on a planet where we thought we know everything…”.
On a planet where we thought we know everything?!
That comment is appalling coming from a scientist. One thing a scientist must know is how ignorant we are about a lot of things; otherwise, we don’t need scientists to discover new stuff. But the remark points to a naive hubris that is pretty pervasive among a “consensus” in the scientific world.
Just fifty years ago, the few believers in “continental drift” were derided by the geologic establishment as kooks on the fringe of science (if not worse). But evidence accumulated, and the theory, repackaged in the ’60s and ’70s as plate tectonics, is now recognized as the grand unifying theory of earth science.
So-called “Progressives” have a tendency to evaluate everything in life as if it were a deterministic, zero sum game. What goes up, must come down. In with the good, out with the bad. What goes around, comes around. Input X necessarily results in Output Y.
But real life systems don’t often obey these rules; they tend toward chaos and often lead to counterintuitive conclusions. In business, they often create examples of The Law of Unintended Consequences.
The Laffer Curve is a perfect example. To a “Progressive”, if you want the government to have more tax revenue, you raise tax rates. Cutting tax rates only benefits “the rich”.
But the real world is governed by the chaotic rules of economics and personal choices. Arthur Laffer made the simple observation that if tax rates are zero, tax revenue is zero. If tax rates are 100%, tax revenue is also zero. Somewhere in between is a maximum, and tax rates above that optimum rate actually result in less tax revenue.
Businessmen don’t need to have this concept explained, so they tend to be conservatives. Academics, trade unionists and Hollywood types will never get it, so they become “Progressives”.
So, you might ask, what does this rambling discourse have to do with Global Warming, Climate Change, or whatever-the-hell they’re calling it these days?
A brilliant article called “The Unbearable Complexity of Climate”, by Willis Eschenbach appeared in the online journal of climate skepticism, wattsupwiththat.com near the end of last year. In it, Eschenbach gives examples of chaotic systems in the real world, and points out the near futility of making predictions in the abscence of a complete and thorough understanding of the system in question.
I recommend that anyone with as much as a passing interest in the climate debate should read the article. A sample:
Unfortunately, while the physics is simple, the climate is far from simple. It is one of the more complex systems that we have ever studied. The climate is a tera-watt scale planetary sized heat engine. It is driven by both terrestrial and extra-terrestrial forcings, a number of which are unknown, and many of which are poorly understood and/or difficult to measure. It is inherently chaotic and turbulent, two conditions for which we have few mathematical tools.
The climate is comprised of five major subsystems — atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. All of these subsystems are imperfectly understood. Each of these subsystems has its own known and unknown internal and external forcings, feedbacks, resonances, and cyclical variations. In addition, each subsystem affects all of the other subsystems through a variety of known and unknown forcings and feedbacks.
Then there is the problem of scale. Climate has crucially important processes at physical scales from the molecular to the planetary, and at temporal scales from milliseconds to millennia.
As a result of this almost unimaginable complexity, simple physics is simply inadequate to predict the effect of a change in one of the hundreds and hundreds of things that affect the climate.
So, on a planet where we thought we know everything, it turns out we may not. And it’s what you don’t know that’ll kill you every time. The passage above pretty well sums up why I’m a proud global warming climate change skeptic.
Cross-posted at VladEnBlog.
KnightsofMalta
Steve Maley
Caleb Howe
"On a planet where we know everything"...
guyaverage (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 10:14PM EST (link)…is a statement that God alone could make truthfully.
Of course, that won’t stop an atheist humanist scientist from making that same statement. The only difference is that coming from the scientist it sounds arrogant.
http://guyaverage.blogspot.com
Nerdy In An Awesome Way...
Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 10:23PM EST (link)Diaries like this inspire me to use nerdy as a term of commendation. Great work!
” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis
The science is settled - just chaotic and turbulent! ;-)
Locked and Loaded (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 10:38PM EST (link)Haha, those arrogant little twits
E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 11:05PM EST (link)I really do love it.
Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO
Remember free fusion power?
Stan(ley) Pruss (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 11:19PM EST (link)When I was in high school in the late 50;s, it was predicted that we would harness the energy powering the sun and produce cheap, clean fusion power. I got my physics PhD in 1969 and have been watchong from a small distance as lots of money and very smart people have failed. The problem is instabilities in hydrodynamics. Similiar problems exist in understanding the interactions in and between the atmosphere and the oceans. For fusion, $billions have gone into devices and experiments where the conditions can be varied and somewhat controlled. After 50 years, there still isn;t an adequate understanding. In Global Warming there can be no experiments, only observations of our single system. When the sun changes just a little, their model didn’t allow for that and they got the wrong answer. That is probably not the only variable they have neglected.
Vladimir,
jsanzone (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 11:36PM EST (link)I am really appreciating your thoughtful environmental posts as of late. While we all might not see eye to eye on certain issues like land conservation or fishing regulations, it’s certainly worth our time as conservatives (or, moreover, as humans, brothers, sisters, parents, grandparents…) to consider conservation and environmentalism as what they are: purposeful endeavors to sustain, utilize, preserve, and discover Creation.
Again, for you reasoned ideas on the subject, and highlighting the wonders of the world, the necessity of preserving it, and the falsities of the globalist ‘climate change’ mantra, thanks.
http://www.2010blog.net
20/10 Blog
Good, thoughtful piece, Vladimir. nt
Achance (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 11:46PM EST (link)In Vino Veritas
Thanks, Art. Much appreciated. nt
Steve Maley (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 11:54PM EST (link)The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Vladimir, this post is delicious
Lori Ziganto (Diary) Tuesday, March 16th at 12:26AM EST (link)Loved it.
That is all.
Also known as SnarkandBoobs
To take your theory just a bit further...
MacAoidh (Diary) Tuesday, March 16th at 12:50AM EST (link)…those Progressives who don’t understand the Law of Unintended Consequences and chaos theory as it relates to complex systems also – because they are atheistic secular humanists – have an irrational fear of “chaos” and grasp at control of those complex systems in an incompetent attempt to bend them to their utopian designs.
Inevitably, they fail because of their inability to understand the very things they attempt to control.
Conservatives, on the other hand, come largely from a faith in God and as such embrace the natural order which comes from chaos. Conservatives are far more comfortable with complex systems and the natural balance of which they are made, and because of that we’re able to leave those systems alone and allow the independent factors within those systems to play themselves out.
We are beginning to see the ultimate and inarguable results of those two worldviews. Progressives already have to tell bald-faced lies about their policies in order to achieve power, and Obama is destroying the credibility of their movement.
Check out MacAoidh’s commentary on Louisiana and national politics at TheHayride.com
Well said Mac -nt-
hickorystick (Diary) Tuesday, March 16th at 1:29AM EST (link)Yes, I agree totally, Mac. nt
Steve Maley (Diary) Tuesday, March 16th at 12:02PM EST (link)The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Jellyfish remoulade?
dennism (Diary) Tuesday, March 16th at 9:18AM EST (link)Sounds nasty.
Man, but if you stuff it with cream cheese...
Steve Maley (Diary) Tuesday, March 16th at 9:30AM EST (link)…wrap it in bacon, throw it on the pit….*
Cooo, you talk about good!
* This being the universal Cajun recipe for rendering the inedible edible. Usually with a slice of jalapeno & some Tony C’s…
The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Good job Vlad,
Warrior (Diary) Tuesday, March 16th at 2:28PM EST (link)but the answer lies in another science altogether — the science of politics:
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
Henry Louis Mencken (1880-1956)
“Racial criteria are irrational, irrelevant, [and] odious to our way of life.” — Thurgood Marshall for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund in the 1950 Supreme Court case of McLaurin v. Oklahoma
if a lead researcher said that, he wasn't thinking
petercrouchback Tuesday, April 5th at 10:44AM EST (link)You must think scientists are stupid. No sane or sensible scientist, or anyone else for that matter, would claim to ‘know everything’. The burden of the main piece is that there are too many variables, and too many of them unknown or unknowable, for us to understand a system like the atmosphere. This position defies common sense and the most basic primary school science. Large atmospheric processes including the ‘greenhouse effect’ and many others, are readily described and may be adequately predicted; they have been since the late C19th and there is scarcely a scientist in the world, including those sceptical about aspects of global warming, who would venture to argue with this. Of course it is a different story at smaller scales, but that is what systems are all about.
And can it be credible that scientists are engaged in some sort of leftist conspiracy? The field scientists I know are motivated by a profound determination to understand; to carry out laborious and ingeniously designed experiments that, over years, produce tiny fragments of data that are scrutinised by others with great critical intensity. If you were to spend a week in the Antarctic with one such group, working long days in what are sometimes dreadful conditions, to examine, in their case, the growth patterns of limpets, a study that will take years and that may support other studies into the past climate, you would, I hope, regard them in a different light. It wuld be unthinkable for them to anticipate their results, to regard any position as being more than a hypothesis or to be dismissive of, or rude about, others similarly striving. I can attest that they are utterly beyond partisanship in the question of global warming. And there are thousands of them going about their work as I write.