A Few More ICCC Tidbits


Stream of consciousness....

o A single modern nuclear reactor has the generating capacity of two Hoover dams.

o The present (Holocene) warming period has lasted for 13,000 years – which, in the present cycling of ice ages and interglacials, is longer than usual; it’s not unreasonable to assume that a new Ice Age may start within the next 1,000 years.

o On Svalbard Island north of Norway, polar bear bones from 110,000 to 130,000 years ago have been found; the polar bears have clearly survived many tens of thousands of years of wild “climate change.”

o In 24 of the 50 states, the all-time high temperatures occurred in the 1930s.

o For Des Moines, Iowa, for the record June and July high temperatures, 33 of 61 occurred in the 1930s.

o In 2008, there were 266 days with no sunspots.

o The notion that ice cores represent “instant canning” of air is badly flawed – just in general (as snow settles and is compressed, the air is squeezed out) and in the handling of those cores.

o The EUniks have (off-the-record) told grant applicants that their main interest in environmentally-related topics is that they “want science that supports environmental taxes.”


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NAAAHHHHA NAHHHHAAAHHHHA Can't Hear You!!

phxg (Diary) Monday, March 9th at 4:24PM EST (link)

Is what Al Gore was overheard saying just the other day.

It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. –Aristotle

 

Sunspots?

eylerwerve (Diary) Monday, March 9th at 5:17PM EST (link)

I’m not following the sunspot comment. It’s an ~11 year cycle; we’re at a low point in 2009. Is this connected to the warming debate somehow?

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/Zurich_Color_Small.jpg

Have you noticed that it was colder this year?

Next93 (Diary) Monday, March 9th at 5:57PM EST (link)

Two years in a row of snow appearing in places that see snow once a decade.

Obama was The One in 2008.
He’ll be a BIGGER one in 2012.

Longest cold period and most snow on the ground

Achance (Diary) Monday, March 9th at 8:56PM EST (link)

in the 25 years I’ve been here in JNU. It has been colder in terms of absolute lows and snowier in terms of total snowfall, but it has been cold, as in below freezing cold almost continually since Thanksgiving and most of the snow that has fallen this year is still laying around, as in up to my windowsills laying around. Normally, we’ll have rainy, snowy weather, a cold snap for a few days or a week or even two, then rain and wind to melt the snow, and the cycle just repeats itself. A white Christmas is by no means a given here and I’ve had a green lawn more than once at Christmas.

But, the last three years have been just plain cold and the winters have been very snowy; over 200 inches total snowfall year before last. No summer to speak of last summer; not one day over 70 degrees when usually we have quite a few over 75 and some over 80. This cycle follows on a couple of years that were just astoundingly beautiful and warm and which melted snowcaps on many of the mountains between here and Anchorage exposing bare soil and rocks that probably hadn’t been uncovered in 10,000 years. Just for perspective, the spot where my house is was UNDER the Mendenhall Glacier only a couple hundred years ago and the face is now almost three miles inland from me.

In Vino Veritas

 
 

Sunspots

Skanderbeg (Diary) Monday, March 9th at 8:43PM EST (link)

The problem with sunspots is that the new “active” cycle start is overdue by a year or two now.

In the past, there has been a strong correlation between “no sunspots” and “sharp cooling.”

Coming in late to this...

eylerwerve (Diary) Tuesday, March 24th at 7:17PM EST (link)

When did this happen? Can you point me to specific dates?

 
 
 

looking for the day when we can sue all these alarmists

kyle8 (Diary) Monday, March 9th at 5:56PM EST (link)

or just imprison them in Gitmo

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

 

That last point is the money quote

Next93 (Diary) Monday, March 9th at 6:15PM EST (link)

The EUniks have (off-the-record) told grant applicants that their main interest in environmentally-related topics is that they “want science that supports environmental taxes.”

In my youth, I thought environmentalism was going to be an injection of science into everyday life. Boy, was I wrong. They left science behind years ago.

These days the environmental movement is nothing more than out-of-work communists hiding behind bunnies and polar bears. The “green” movement has decided that that (a) the planet is at risk and (b) the only way to “save the planet” is by dictating where you will live, what you can drive, what you can buy, and how your employer does business and how much they will make and how much they will charge.

I’ve reached a point where I’d rather live free on a planet that looks like the Houston Ship Channel than live as a slave to the bunnies and polar bears in the pristine beauty of the “green” worker’s paradise (which bears a remarkable resemblence to the soviet worker’s paradise).

Oh, and by the way, my parish preist is starting to worry about his job; who needs to go to church on Sunday when you can get a sermon simply by turning on the radio of TV or picking up a newspaper?

Obama was The One in 2008.
He’ll be a BIGGER one in 2012.

They don't call them watermelons for nothing;

Achance (Diary) Wednesday, March 11th at 10:59AM EST (link)

Green on the outside, Red on the inside.

In Vino Veritas

 
 

The final point is all you need to know

Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Tuesday, March 10th at 10:21AM EST (link)

It isn’t that anyone believe in this crap, it is that they want a new revenue stream to pay for the social programs. This is why cap and trade is on its way to us, science be damned. We have to find a way to pay for universal healthcare somehow.

“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy

 

Just agitating

pjshifty Tuesday, March 10th at 12:24PM EST (link)

Interesting, so given that #7 is true (implying ice core measurements are not accurate enough to be used) how can you conclude #2 and #3? Did these all come from the same speaker?

Did you miss the part of keynote speaker Lindzen’s talk when he said #6 is irrelevant?

#4 and 5 are interesting (and well known) but how are they relevant?

So where does that leave us – the here say of #8 and the true statement of #1 that has little to do with climate science. Nice!

Agitate, agitate, agitate…

Think And Study Before You Spout

Skanderbeg (Diary) Tuesday, March 10th at 9:46PM EST (link)

At the macro-level, my advice would be to go study the points in more details before spouting – since you can find more on these topics with a little searching on the interweb tubes.

But if you insist:

o I didn’t number these, but note that 2 and 3 have no absolute dependence on ice core data.

We know from many, many sources that the large glacial coverage period (the last “ice age) ended c. 13,000 years ago, and we’ve entered an interglacial that has been very stable. There is much more about this than just ice cores.

The discovery of polar bear remains more than 100,000 years old indicates that the supposedly-fragile ursus maritimus is a very robust species that has survived many ice ages and interglacials – including the Roman warming and Medieval Warm Period – for which historical records strongly indicate a warmer overall climate than today.

o The role (or lack thereof) of the sun in climate was a topic of great debate at the meeting – and is a topic of great debate in general. Lindzen’s thought on the subject is that the natural variability of the system is so large that we have to assume that’s enough and not look for an external forcing function to “replace” CO2. I tend to agree with his take on this because I have a lot of experience with statistics and the statistical behavior of real world systems (and ones where misunderstandings of such can lead to multi-hundred-million-dollar mistakes). In contrast, Soon argues persuasively that the sun-temperature correlations exist, and to a degree that seems to be more than incidental. I don’t rule that out, but since science is an ongoing process (not the committee selection of talking points) I have to remain open to persuasion if the statistical argument proves insufficient and the solar argument gains more strength. For the solar stuff there is a parsing of the issue with regard to the longer time scales, but that’s another matter.

Lindzen did NOT address sunspots in particular, just solar influx. As per the above, it remains very interesting to note that a lack of solar activity (as symptomed by a paucity of sunspots) *does* seem to show a historical correlation with multi-century-long periods of cooling. This is an empirical observation, but it’s a very interesting one. We don’t need to understand the physics to note a correlation that has predictive power. If (as per the above) the present dearth of sunspots *does* correlate (predictively) with a noticeable cooling period, then the notion of sun-temperature links is strengthened and needs further detailed study to identify causal mechanisms.

o The Des Moines and state high temperature records are relevant if you’ve been paying attention to the AGW alarmists and their attempt to try to tell us that all the “heat” has been in very recent years; this contention crumbles when the realities are analyzed. If such things cluster in the 1930s, we haven’t suddenly entered a period of new super-heating.

My final suggestion is that you learn the difference between “agitating” and just being an immature show-off.

Thanks for the advice

pjshifty Wednesday, March 11th at 10:54AM EST (link)

Good answer on the ice cores – just testing to see where you were. I’d also advise that you do a little more researching yourself. For example on the MWP – historical records indicate that parts of northern Europe may (emphasis on may) have been warmer than now, but not the globe as a whole.

Yes, sunspots have correlated well in the past, but not recently. There is a strong correlation with something else in that figure though – might that indicate predictive power? Or are empirical relationships only only valid for things that aren’t greenhouse gasses? Your diary from today seems to suggest that all empirical relationships are bad, so I’m confused.

On Des Moines, we all know that cherry picking is one of the 5 basic tenets of Denialism, but why did you happen to choose Des Moines? Why not Melbourne, Australia?

I have an idea, instead picking random points on the globe why not add up all the extremes worldwide over long periods of time and look for trends – after all we call it global warming, not Des Moines warming, right?

Sorry for my immaturity, perhaps some day I’ll grow up :)

Encirclement

Skanderbeg (Diary) Wednesday, March 11th at 8:51PM EST (link)

Well, I guess it’s never too late to have a happy childhood. Right? :D

I think you’ve actually presented why the whole AGW argument is like a cloud – it’s looks solid until you try to touch it.

You can grab things and find almost any sort of trend.

This is basically all noise that occasionally fools you with apparent order.

I have reached the point where I’ve concluded that the AGW alarmists are like those people who used to claim that they could tune to empty VHF channels, look at the “snow,” and detect secret signals in there.

And one throwaway BTW. The glaciers grew in the Andes during the Little Ice Age – I’ve seen the moraines first hand.