Remember 2004? Insurgent Democrat Howard Dean uses a rash of young people online to raise surprising sums of money and gather incredible “buzz” for his candidacy. And yet he drops to third in Iowa, then second in New Hampshire. He would not go on to California, and Texas, and New York, nor would he take the White House.

Now between the PPP poll I covered earlier, and Insider Advantage, It’s Ron Paul in the Howard Dean spot. He only wins if the youth show up.

The facts: Unknown number of likely caucus goers (note that Insider Advantage calls it a ‘Primary’), unknown MoE, unknown handling of mobile phone users or even if it was a telephone poll. So, we have no facts, actually, do we?

The key: The poll projects 33% of the caucus goers to be ages 45-64 and 26% to be 65 and up. According to the CNN entrance polls, those numbers were actually 46% and 27%. InsiderAdvantage seems to join PPP in predicting an unprecedented surge of young independents.

Ron Paul is now Howard Dean. If the youth show up, he wins. If they don’t, all he’s left with is a bat and a mailing list.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter