…What I said in response to the other Gallup diary:

And that is – Gallup’s week-to-week numbers are [dung].

If you look over the past four weeks of Gallup results, the GOP lead was +7, +3, +10, and +0. If you average those four results, you end up with a GOP +5 margin, which sounds about right for a Registered Voter poll (and would likely translate into at least a GOP +10 margin in a Likely Voter poll – see recent Rasmussen and ABC/WP results).

So, when it comes to Gallup, I’ve been tending to ignore the week-to-week results, and paying more attention to the four-week average.

All that said, I have no doubt that you are correct in the ‘micro’ analysis of Gallup’s most recent poll result.

Which is just another way of saying that – we’re both right:
Gallup’s week-to-week numbers are [dung].

The must be using the California New Math computation method.

This republic was not established by cowards; and cowards will not preserve it. ~~Elmer Davis

I am stone forged from the fires of creation into flesh ~~Pamela1631

The greatest civilization is one where all citizens are equally armed and can only be persuaded, never forced.~~Maj. L. Caudill, USMC (Ret.)

The Concord Project: Fighting for Freedom in the Fall

Maybe they got their charts and graphs mixed up and began using the global warming crowd math.

As you’ve been telling us for weeks, Gallup’s polling has been up and down and inconsistent from week to week. If this gets backed up by Rasmussen, then I’ll reconsider their polling methods and results. Otherwise, I’m through with them. No reputable polling firm would put out results in such conflict with polling done only a week earlier.

It really diminishes the credibility of Gallup on this particular polling issue.

Someone else (I forget who said it) has mentioned in the past that Gallup’s accuracy in poling the “generic ballot” leaves a lot to be desired. Now I understand what they mean.

maybe the country is finally starting to pay attention!

-Gallup yesterday, both parties tied 46-46
-Democracy Corps today, GOP leads 49-41
-Wash Post yesterday, GOP leads 53-40
-Rasmussen 9/6, GOP leads 48-36
-Gallup last week, GOP leads 51-41

Any questions?

Judges from the last Olympics–no the World Cup referee is on going the math at Gallup.

Its like the weather in Memphis–don’t like this week’s gallup numbers–wait a week and the GOP will be ahead.

In his piece of a week ago, Jim Geraghty’s deep-throat, Obi-Wan, mentioned that a poll showing things closing up would come out soon in order to change the narrative. Happened quicker than even he probably expected. The problem is, though, when a guy like Chuck Todd – a Tom Harkin Democrat – warns people against using Gallup, this sort of trickeration might blow away in the breeze.

…Olberdork and Thrillupmyleg were gushing about this outlier poll as a “signal” of the Dems’ revival.
Any port in a storm, I suppose.

Gallup’s polls do tend to gallup around quite a bit. But I wonder whether the long Labor Day weekend also skewed this poll a bit. Lots of married couples with kids getting a last long weekend out of town means lots of Republicans not answering their phones.

You see the deal is that about 8 weeks ago a member of Gallups team dropped his mocha cappuccino double sweet with soy all over their Magic 8 Ball and broke it. And Linda, who used to do the tea leaves before they acquired the Magic 8 ball, is in Gaza acting as a human shield and can’t get away right now to do her tea leave deal.
So Gallup has actually had to attempt to do the math for real. Obviously it’s been a long time since they have had to do that “old school” math thingy.