Another “too controversial” and “too extreme” Republican candidate destroying his “mainstream” Dem opponent in a non-partisan poll.

And this despite the fact that the legacy media has been attacking Paul relentlessly the entire campaign while giving Conway a free pass. Looks like voters are getting smart enough to tune this out.

down to the party ID of the polls. Rand & Conway have been fairly steady as to how the republicans-democrats-indies vote but its the party ID of the poll that affects its ending margin.

This poll has it at +5D–that means the GOP is surging to the polls to vote and I might add that national survey after survey finds this to be the truth. I might add that 20 states so far this year have set GOP (including KY) midterm primary records. There seems to be a GOP surge in turnout this year.

I might add that KY’s democrats are very different from those in say CA.

CA has 42% of its registered voters as democrats-it was nearly a 60% Obama state.

KY has 47% of its registered voters as democrats and was nearly a 60% McCain state.

So 32% for Paul-among democrats is par for the course in KY

even when he rightly suggested that parts of the Civil Rights Act is unconstitutional. The man is a winner and he will win.

There is a long standing fact that people asked poll questions sometimes say what they think people want them to hear.

In the case of African-AMerican candidates like Tom Bradley (in California), the thought was that people wanted to be seen as fair and more deverse so they said they would vote for Bradley and didn’t.

Is there any chance of a reverse case for Angle? People not wanting to seem like they are supporting someone the left has painted as nuts or will there really be that many ticket splitters (based on the Sandavol / Reid governor race).

Sorry to drop this in here, Neil, but I didn’t see anything about the latest Reid poll that puts him at 50% for the first time.

but Rand Paul is very electabilty in this state. I would suspect that nearly of the Southern states except Florida or VA would elect him plus many of the Western states..

I don’t think you say Rand Paul is ahead in KY and therefore we could elect someone like him in Mi.

Just saying -somewhere near 25 states would elect him.

I fear that Rand Paul will be about as dependable as his father. With so many of the Libertarians, ideological consistency trumps practicality. How do we accommodate an isolationist, pro legalized drugs member of the caucus. Paul holds many positions which are at odds with traditional conservative thinking. Yes, I’d like to see Paul win as well, but I wonder about his future impact.

These SUSA polls are showing some weird cross tabs. Paul is also creaming Conway in the Youth vote, winning 60-33 despite losing the over-65 vote by 3.

Also, I think this is a high sample of Republicans. 42% in Kentucky I think is a bit too much

in voter identification. Roughly 1/2 of states have voter registration (some states like AK-NJ-MA have weak party registration systems) and 1/2 of the states do not register by party.

In KY they register by party–right now its roughly 55%D -38%R-7%no party or indie.

Yet in 2008 per the exit polls it was by self identification 47%D-38%R-15%I.

KY has a strong party registration system (closed primaries) plus many local offices are settled in partisan primaries. So for instance in Pike county-its heavily democratic-the sheriff is chosen in the D primary. If you want to have any imput on who the sheriff or the county executive is you have to be a registered D. The GOP primary is a waste of time and effort. So you tend to see lopsided party ID’s in KY on a county by county basis but then McCain wins 58% in a state with 55% registered democrats Plus many registered democrats consider themselves republican but they want to vote for bubba for sheriff so they stay democratic for local races.

I think at 42%R this poll is in line with CNN exits as it shows a 4% R move.

A good way to look at this puzzle is that nationwide by party ID we are 33R-31D-34I. Consistently 1/3 of people consider themselves indie yet in strong party registration states like PA/KY (closed primaries & partisan local elections) we see 90% of voters are either democrats or republicans. Thus indies have to choose a party or be left out of primary and an effective say in most local elections.

I cannot imagine at any time being so bored and having nothing to do that I would actually take the time to answer a poll. And talking to my friends I get the same response.

So this begs the question, Who is answering these poll questions?

I see people getting more and more cynical and uncooperative all the time, spending most of their time with social media and ignoring older media.

Just how do you scientifically poll such a changing populous?

while he bumbiled at the start with a talk to Rachel Maddow, his low-key and use of the ole brain has help. I also think that the primary lose by Adam Korkesh in NM-03 helped too in getting rid of any kooky people who might be connected to you. I also think that Jack Conway in what little I’ve heard him talk, is a real village idiot. So, it seems to be a Solid R in all respects and I’m sure that the Conservative wing of the Republican party in the Senate is ready for him.

Paul’s handlers have brilliantly kept him away from unstructured settings since his early gaffes. Stay on message against Obama/Pelosi/Reid and don’t get distracted. Angle’s people should be telling her the same thing. If Reid’s the issue in Nevada, he loses by 10% or more. If she is the issue, it will be close enough to steal.

Still, we must observe Rand Paul as a fringe nut by his own words and deeds. He gave literally hundreds of speeches decrying US foreign policy – not just Bush foreign policy, but pretty much ANY foreign policy. Now, he was campaigning for his father when he said these things, but he stated them as principles, never qualifying with “Daddy believes …”.

We shall see how dependable his vote is on our national interests. We shall see if he votes against all spending bills, like Daddy. We shall see if, like Daddy, he gets all his earmarks and pork loaded into the bills before voting against them. Oh, he will surely be better than the Democrat would – but the same can be said of Mike Castle