From Unlikely Voter: Much like New Hampshire I’ve covered previously, New Mexico was the site of big wins for Democrats in recent years, wiping out the Republican Party.
But now a SurveyUSA poll for KOB of the first Congressional District has Democrat Martin Heinrich so worried, he’s put out an internal poll in response.
The SurveyUSA poll is dismal for the incumbent, as Republican challenger Jon Barela leeds Heinrich 51-45 (MoE 4.2).
When a challenger is over 50, that’s spectacular, so Heinrich has responded by putting out his own poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, the firm we know so well from their bad news reports to Democracy Corps. But in this case the news isn’t so bad, and GQR has Heinrich up 53-41 a couple of weeks ago.
Did the race shift that much? Did Heinrich’s team insert assumptions into the GQR poll that KOB Eyewitness News didn’t insert into their poll? Is somebody just wrong? I wish I could say, but this race is going to get some attention now.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Heinrich's Internal Poll Is Worth Toilet Paper
IJB Tuesday, July 27th at 3:35PM EST (link)I agree with RCP that this race is probably a “tossup” now.
But I don’t buy Heinrich’s poll for a minute – SurveyUSA is a pretty well regarded (independent) polling firm, so I’m going to put a lot more weight on what they say…
Barela
rdelbov Tuesday, July 27th at 3:46PM EST (link)appears to be a super candidate–conservative and a great fundraiser.
He is also hispanic in a district that is 40% hispanic. Henrich was a primary against two major hispanic challengers in 2008 so this district is good chance for the GOP to make an inroad in 2010. Barela gets 40% of the hispanic vote in the SUSA poll.
House races are notoriously hard to poll
downcold (Diary) Tuesday, July 27th at 9:38PM EST (link)and SurveyUSA has had some serious outliers these past few cycles. I’d wait for another poll to confirm Barela is ahead, but this will be a competitive race.
Go Barela
proudgop (Diary) Tuesday, July 27th at 10:27PM EST (link)I posted on this last night. With Republicans fighting for Gov mansion in the state and Republicans gaining Mayor of Alborqurque ( my spelling if so off)
I believe we will regain this seat and Pearce will win too
It's spelled, "Albacookie"...
harlan Tuesday, July 27th at 11:24PM EST (link)Come on back, New Mexico!
More to NM than it appears
plwinteregg Wednesday, July 28th at 12:23PM EST (link)That’s 2 of 3 congressional districts within reach of the R’s, and the Governor’s race also looking possible. The R’s have a number other candidates running that are exciting the electorate. Could be their year.
What outsiders need to know is not only the anger here against DC huge, the anger over the overreach, abuse of power, and corruption in Santa Fe is nearly volcanic. NM legal Hispanics mirror their AZ neighbors in supporting better border protection. Yet due to the liberal policies of Santa Fe, NM continues give DL’s to illegals. So now we’re seeing a huge influx from AZ. Our BMV offices have been overwhelmed to the point of requiring an appointment for non-citizens to get their DL. Only the idiots in Santa Fe don’t realize just how ridiculous that sounds.
And don’t even ask about the explosion of regulations killing our economy…