Such a quiet death rattle, all things considered:
As a practical matter, the Obama campaign and, for the present, the Democratic Party, have laid to rest all consideration of reviving the coalition nurtured and cultivated by Franklin D. Roosevelt. The New Deal Coalition — which included unions, city machines, blue-collar workers, farmers, blacks, people on relief, and generally non-affluent progressive intellectuals — had the advantage of economic coherence. It received support across the board from voters of all races and religions in the bottom half of the income distribution, the very coherence the current Democratic coalition lacks.
You’d expect more of a reaction from the New York Times, all things considered. After all, the New Deal coalition has not just existed and affected American politics for my entire life; it’s done that for my parents’ entire lives. Which is not to say that it’s particularly surprising that the New Deal coalition would eventually dissolve, of course; it’s almost eighty years old, and been taking body blows for the last thirty. Political alliances and movements come in and out of existence all of the time, and that’s just the nature of things. There still should be less of a shrug about it all, though.
But here’s the thing. The New Deal coalition is dying, if not dead. What were the Democrats planning to replace it with? What the NYT calls ‘economic’ coherence I’d also call ‘ideological;’ whether you agreed with the New Deal program or not, you could always actually define it in terms that were internally self-consistent. Broadly speaking, it was a broad agreement among various groups that America’s most pressing problems could be managed and ameliorated on a broad scale through ‘expert’ and judicious government intervention; and that such intervention dampened the uncertainty and anxiety that might otherwise cause societal panics and economic dislocations. Again: you don’t have to agree with that (I don’t) to recognize that it existed as a coherent policy.
But now that has gone by the wayside, to be replaced with a system that… apparently plans to trade support for permanent government dependency programs for minorities, in exchange for legislating the fringe progressive morality of affluent urbanites. Aside from the utter lack of an unifying intellectual or moral framework to such an arrangement, it’s unclear exactly who benefits less from it; while it’s certainly not in minority voters’ long, medium, or short-term interests to become a permanent underclass, it’s not exactly clear that minority voters are even particularly ready to vote for a progressive social policy (as an examination of recent reversals in same-sex marriage movement in California and Maryland will readily attest). But then, that is not really the goal, is it? The goal is to re-elect President Obama – which is something that poor African-American and rich liberal voters both wish to do – and if that is accomplished, then anything else is extra. Which is just as well, because nobody really expects Obama to have much in the way of coat-tails this go-round.
And that is the amazing thing about all of this: the Democratic party has apparently decided to toss aside the vast mass of American voters in order to benefit a man who will, at best, only hold power for another five years. Even assuming that it works, there’s no way that the next Democratic candidate will be able to duplicate the conditions that got Barack Obama re-elected… and it’s certainly not going to do anything to allow the Democrats to win seats in anything except already safe-territory. Which is great – I am a Republican interested in getting Republicans elected – but you would think that my opposite numbers in the Democratic party would start getting nervous about the looming crackup.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
Yes Moe, The New Deal is dead, Next comes the RAW Deal
izoneguy (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 2:20PM EST (link)The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.
Does that make this the election of the long knives, Moe?
acat (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 2:20PM EST (link)Or will that be 2014 and 2016?
My guess is the re-shuffle of the deck, that we’re long overdue for, is finally getting underway. Interesting times.
Mew
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Caveat Suffragator
Buy Ammo.
wilgolden Tuesday, November 29th at 12:02AM EST (link)The next few years will be interesting.
In a Chinese curse kinda way.
But that’s just this cowboy’s thoughts. Whadda I know?
“Proud Charter Member of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy Since 1964!”
I know several who agree with you, wilgolden.
acat (Diary) Tuesday, November 29th at 11:41AM EST (link)Let’s say that, as options go, that’s not one I’m likely to succeed at.
Mew
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Caveat Suffragator
This will be just another
kattail Monday, November 28th at 3:26PM EST (link)name game, akin to going from “global warming” to “climate change”. They will have a new plan, put a spin on it and continue to push for the expansion of government and the redistribution of wealth. It’s about ideology, which will remain the same for a certain portion of their voting populace.
Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other. – Ronald Reagan
Moe--there is one other (big) piece of the puzzle
wbb1950 Monday, November 28th at 3:32PM EST (link)Public sector unions who have become part of the coalition and feed at the public trough. Obama calls this the middle class–and he protects them even as he disenfranchises the middle class as a whole. I sent copy to BB and hope Labor Union report sees it as well This article is from Saturday’s WSJ, and it comes not from a conservative but from that nearly extinct specie–an honest man of the left. It is a great read, and it sheds important light on the matter.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203716204577016092542307600.html
Edsall's article mentioned them
renl57 Monday, November 28th at 3:58PM EST (link)The original article by Mr. Edsall that Moe cited, mentions *some* public employees–white collar employees–as part of Obama’s new coalition.
Policemen and firefighters tend to be more conservative than, say, librarians and social program representatives.
Obama is not trying to win the votes of cops–especially not after his blunder with Gates in Massachusetts. He’s trying to win the votes of government bureaucrats.
Moe, I'm not sure the death knell has been rung
retire05 Monday, November 28th at 3:55PM EST (link)on the philosophies behind the New Deal. I just think that Americans, in a lesser degree, think they work. There are still those who think that basically, Americans are too dumb to understand what is good for them, so they will continue to force their progressive (read Marxist) beliefs down the throats of those who hold little power.
Obama, like Roosevelt, believes that brain trusts gleened from Columbia and Harvard, can figure out how to solve all the ailments of the nation. Obama is wrong, as was FDR. But Obama fancies himself as the reincarnation of FDR, except he faces one major problem; no one believes him. FDR held the nation spell bound even as his programs, such as the communal farm system started by Rex (The Red) Tugwell, failed. FDR possessed the gift of leadership, however wrongheaded, while Obama does not. FDR was deeply, and personally, involved in law making, while Obama abdicates that authority to a Democrat Congress.
There are still those that believe that only in a oppressive central government can we achieve true equality. But the equality they seek, as did FDR, is not of opportunity but of wealth. People are surprised when I quote the tenents of the Communist Manifesto and they see how many of those tenents were acheived during FDR far-too-long reign.
The current administration still panders to the unions, although Americans see that it is the non-union states that are experiencing some economic stability. Americans are also beginning to understand that excessive taxation, without governmental spending restraint, will gain us nothing. The Democrats will continue to pander to the underclass, knowing that a constant new supply has to be maintained in order for them to continue to be elected as voters will always vote with their wallets. Success will be punished and failure rewarded.
Every conservative in America should read Amity Shales’ Forgotten Man, and also FDR’s Folly. We need to understand how we got where we are, and what we have to do to reverse the harm done. We understand that the programs installed by FDR was abstract failures but knowing why they were implemented in the first place is a must.
retire05
What holds this new coalition together
renl57 Monday, November 28th at 4:10PM EST (link)You’ve got upscale socially liberal college-educated types, combined with blacks and Hispanics.
Sorry, but to me that’s a personality cult, held together solely by common admiration of Obama.
Obama talks like a professor (and hence wins over the college educated types)–while his dark skin wins over the minorities.
This coalition could never hold together otherwise. How do we know? Because in 1968, we saw that the *white* intellectual candidate Eugene McCarthy did NOT attract minority voters.
Conversely, a candidate chosen from the Congressional Black Caucus would be too much about lunch-pail issues and fighting poverty to turn on the white college educated, who care more about Saving The World by fighting global warming and such.
The Dems would have to keep nominating black (or Hispanic) intellectuals forever in order to keep this coalition together.
When historians look back, retire05, they will put the end of the "Blue State Model"...
acat (Diary) Tuesday, November 29th at 12:57AM EST (link)somewhere between 2000 and 2050. It will be, as was the end of the Roman Empire, the fall of the Byzantines, and the end of WWII, a matter of some debate. (the last fighting in Europe took place after V-E Day, the last fighting in Asia took place after V-J Day) Could be as early as Clinton’s failure to get socialized medicine, could be as late as whoever follows the next GOP POTUS.
‘s the problem with trying to predict “the end” of things … truth is sometimes stranger, and certainly less well written, than fiction.
Mew
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Caveat Suffragator
What will they replace it with?
jb13 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 4:04PM EST (link)That question is actually easily answered: A coalition of greens, homosexual activists, La Raza, public sector unions, and OWS types (the true scuzzy hippy-dippy OWS people, not the labor unions.)
The power of the new coalition could be be most clearly seen in the Keystone Pipeline decision. If the New Deal coalition still had power, that project would have sailed through; it would have been a no-brainer. Instead, it stalled because the most powerful forces in the modern Democratic Party (the greens and the public sector unions) believe both that 1) the threat of manmade climate change is a more existential threat then systemic unemployment and continued economic malaise, and 2) abundant, secure and relatively inexpensive petroleum will stand in their way of grabbing massive amounts of power through the establishment of regulatory regimes and distribution of “clean energy” subsidies that the current powers that be say will both combat climate change and “end America’s dependence on foreign oil.” Take away the fear of and need for Middle Eastern and OPEC oil, and it becomes that much harder to persuade Americans to hand over control of the energy sector to greens and public sector unionized bureaucracies, and to hell with the private sector unions who need those heavy industry jobs.
It's a decent calculation for them
renl57 Monday, November 28th at 4:13PM EST (link)Private sector unions are dying.
Only something like 8% of Americans belong to a private sector union anymore. The decimation of manufacturing employment (as robots and computers replaced men) has caused blue collar union membership to collapse.
That, more than anything else, is what has caused the Dem Party to try to put together a different kind of coalition.
Back in the 1950s, some 40% of Americans belonged to a private sector union. The AFL-CIO was the heart and soul of the Democratic Party’s base.
Now the heart and soul of the Democratic Party’s base is the college educated and the minorities.
When public sector workers suddenly realize
Tbone (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 4:39PM EST (link)that the greatest threat to their lifestyle is government insolvency from Democrats buying votes from the scums and bums, I think they will turn to a far more conservative posture about government entitlement spending.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
You thinking "A conservative is a liberal who's been mugged", Tbone?
acat (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 5:16PM EST (link)I think I agree with you…
The trickle-down effect from all the insolvent pension plans – falling both on the taxpayers and on the kids of lifetime union members who assumed they’d be independent – is going to be interesting.
Mew
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Caveat Suffragator
As a farmer, I take offence
neukm Monday, November 28th at 6:01PM EST (link)to the Times lumping me in with “unions, city machines, people on relief and generally non-affluent progressive intellectuals” Just which industry do they think is predominant in the deep red rural areas??
Proud to stand with blue collar workers and blacks, though.
Amen....
nathanalbright (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 11:53PM EST (link)….I come from a blue collar background. I was born in McKeesport because my dairy-farming father and grandfather were bus drivers and my father was the long-time secretary of his local busdriver’s union, and the AFL-CIO health plan in 1981 had its hospital for union workers in McKeesport (where the steel mills soon closed down). He never was a democrat, and I have no problems standing with farmers and blue collar workers in the new Republican base.
all I heard was...
Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle) (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 6:18PM EST (link)“I’m Bawney Fwank and this is the WEAL Weason I won’t be rwunning for Congwess again. Between we-distrwicting and coming up with legislashown that cunsistently ignows the needs of the middle cuwlass, I don’t think I cun win.”
“Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives. “ -James Madison
I read this as: the Democrats have a bigger plan
ajshea (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 11:46PM EST (link)The Democrats are hoping that if they can get four more years of Obama they will have a permanent lock on power and the FDR coalition won’t matter any more.
Daniel Hannan, UK Member of the European Parliament, has been saying this for over two years. His argument is based on the UK National Health Service. The NHS is (according to him) the third-largest employer on earth after the Red (Chinese) Army and India National Railways and none of whom will vote for a politician who might eliminate their jobs (the majority of the NHS employees are bureaucrats). *
Four more years of Obama will make Obamacare irreversible, and all those bureaucrats employed by Obamacare will become an electoral bloc that will guarantee the Democrats’ majority. None of them will want to vote themselves out of a job, so they will all vote Democrat.
If we don’t gut Obamacare in the next two years, we will never be rid of it, and we will never be rid of a Democrat majority. That is their dream, and they are willing to sacrifice many sacred cows to see it come to pass.
—–
* see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx0ktkr9s8I at 6:52 and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpda3l2ri0Y at 6:25
See also http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufyov9RO8I0
NHS employs 1.4 million+, over 7% of the working population — (1.2 million in 2007, http://www.personneltoday.com/articles/2007/08/07/41848/nearly-1-million-employees-on-nhs-electronic-staff-record-integrated-hr-and-payroll-system.html )
ObamaCare
donald_24 Tuesday, November 29th at 12:23AM EST (link)If Obama loses, what is the plan to repeal ObamaCare in the Senate without 60 votes? Repealing ObamaCare is easier said than done. The only way I see it being repealed is in the courts. Otherwise it is here to stay regardless of who wins.
It actually gives him the power to do anything.
Menlo (Diary) Tuesday, November 29th at 2:11AM EST (link)If you read through it, you will see that virtually every mandate, regulation, and provision is up to the discretion of “The Secretary” to require, to waive, to regulate, or to simply ignore. If it were actually followed and enforced to the letter with no waivers or variances, it would collapse on its own weight.
The only thing “here to stay” is the power of the HHS Secretary.
“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter
Trade You One Joe Lunchbox For The GLBT Professor
wolfgang Tuesday, November 29th at 9:00AM EST (link)Not a very bright move. Sort of like playing political Russian Roulette with six rounds chambered, but after spending twenty years seated in the front pew of Reverend Jeremiah ‘It’s not God bless America! It’s God d@mn America!” Wright’s church, its not un expected from the most anti American president ever. There is a lot of hate wrapped into and behind the Reverend’s classic statement, most of that abject hatred directed at White America, and Barack Hussein Obama carries every gram of it within himself. Look at the speed and alacrity with which the Winston Churchill bust found its way to the dumpster in back of the White House after January 20, 2009, or how NASA’s purpose was redirected to specifically attend to the needs of Mecca or how swiftly the Northern Defense Command was flushed down the toilet. Both NASA and the Northern Defense Command had one thing in common, they both employed a lot of highly paid, highly educated, mostly white personnel. Gone!
Look for an emergency Hillary Presidential campaign shortly, Barack is today playing the part of the Pied Piper of Hamelin and leading the Democratic Party down the hill into the river.
“I didn’t leave my party! My party left me!” Georgia Democratic Senator Zell Miller, remarks made at the RNC, Summer, 2004