just looking at their ratings for Gov races and I am sorta amazed

I mean I would say at this point its highly likely we have every Gov race in Midwest ( I am only concerned with Minn right now)

Maine can go our way not sure why they have it as lean dem. The RGA has such huge advantage they can pour a lot money in MD, NM, and OR to push them over

As for US Senate Races I think WV is very much worth keeping an eye on. I’d like to see new poll in CT too to see what movement has been lately.

… if everyone gets complacent or believes all the predictions. And it’s unfortunate that the Dems have been prepared for this nightmare for a long time (unlike 1994). That’s why most of their at-risk incumbents are extremely well funded.

Having said that, if turnout from the right is as expected (which so far is supported by a massive 4-million vote GOP advantage in the combined primaries), and indies break for the GOP (as we’ve been seeing in dozens of polls and many early elections), then all that money will be unable to help many of the Democrats. Nearly 50 House Democrats are sitting in districts won by McCain.

But I’ll remind everyone of 1998, a mid-term where the GOP was expected to do well. People got complacent, and “real conservatives” threw a hissy fit that the GOP hadn’t yet executed Bill Clinton (I’m exaggerating, but this was during the impeachment trial build-up). So the Dems ended up gaining a few seats. Nothing major, but given the expectations it was played up as some massive Democrat victory. It will be the same if the GOP wins only 35 House seats this year. It will be trumpeted as a GOP failure, since Nancy Pelosi will still be Speaker. And I personally will consider it a failure.

If that occurs “real conservatives” will berate the “Stupid Party” but very few of them will actually look in the mirror. Hopefully we can all stay focused, donate our time and money, sport bumpers stickers/yard signs, and drag friends and family to the polls on Nov. 2nd to punish the Dems/Socialists trying to destroy this nation.

Seems like a fantastic candidate. Can we get a petition going that will ask him to move to another district so he can run there? Barney Frank has such a stranglehold on that district that no one (not even Jesus) would be able to take him down. Maybe he could move and run against Tsongas or Tierney or even Neal.

…try this:

http://cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-09-02_12-57-01.php

He sent a e-mail to supporters today begging for money because he had such a strong opponent. That is a race that shouldn’t be competitive, but will be.

on Fox either last night or the night before.

I am very nervous. All this “good” news just makes me feel uneasy.

…And I was surprised that there were a number of races where the GOP candidate was within a hair of getting a majority (in one district, a swing of just 100-150 votes would have put the GOP candidate over the Dem one).

If the WA GOP can just get slightly better turnout in some of these districts (even some of the ones in King County), they can make up some ground in the WA legislature. (The good news is – the primary results show them where they have just a little bit of work to do. The bad news is – the primary results do exactly the same thing for WA Dems…)

I’ve been meaning to do a similar (but more in depth) analysis of CA legislative races for posting – to see what the GOP actually has a shot of picking up – but it’s open question as to whether I’ll have to time to do it before Nov…

Everyone…and I’m mean *everyone* else has AR either “safe” or “solid” Republican.

What a joke.

Ratings are so subjective lets be honest ( lean, likely, tossup all are in same field)

SUSA has poll out today with Yarmuth at 47% and Lally at 45%

that race was off radar to me

I am hoping NRCC raised a lot money this month to match fundraisign area

I see Spratt compared 40% of his ellectorate to Osama ( he says any Republican even Osame could get 40% in his district)

its these type of mistakes that can move races even more