“As has been the case in every month over the past eight years of tracking, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. The gap is currently 1.2 percentage points. That’s the closest the Republicans have been to parity in more than five years, since July 2005.”

Perhaps if Republicans could pick a principle and stand firmly with it, that would change. Hopefully our new wave of primary winners will be able to speak eloquently to that theory. Getting them to DC in November is just the first step – they’ll be assaulted and attacked every step they take thereafter. And I expect them to be undermined and muted by the GOP establishment. I know RedState will continue to be their voice, and they’re going to need it loud and strong.

Thanks so much for all you do, RedState writers!

and on a personal note – I find people who switch partys annually based on popularity really annoying.

…Of course, your analysis is spot-on in the sense that it will help straighten out the sampling pool later on, BUT…

The problem with ALL polling is that it tends to straight-jacket elections into the very narrow realm of popularity, and group-and-herd-think. For example, if no polling were allowed in, say, the Delaware GOP Primary Senate Race, chances are, we would be talking about what a mindless liberal the dinosaur Mike Castle is, and how thoroughly and mindfully conservative his opponent is–; rather than the fact that he’s up a billion points “in the polls”. It is an interesting commentary about cultural or political confidence that we even CARE about what the polls say currently: Our political world-view is determined by how many POTENTIAL votes someone MIGHT get?

In 1996, the main election issue was the fact that Bill Clinton was “up” 30 points against Bob Dole in the polls. The race NEVER was about governmental issues, but rather how many people were going to (supposedly) vote for Bill Clinton, and whether or not you wanted to jump aboard his bandwagon before it left the station.

The fact is, elections are not “races”. Polling only cements this metaphor. Elections are, more accurately, a print-out of the data input on a single day, by a finite group of people. In this sense, sixty days before an election is an irrelevancy. Sixty days after is crucial.

is the recent survey in Ohio where Bush was pick over Obama 50 to 42.

That is mind-blowing, especially considering Bush was probably the worst Republican figure you could put up against Obama. Almost any one of the names being thrown around for the Republican nomination in 2012 would do much better against Obama.

In nearly every election in modern times, Ohio has been the linchpin to capturing the White House. If Ohio goes Republican by 8-10 points, I really see no plausible path for Obama to get reelected.

We may very well see a challenge to Obama for the Democrat nomination.

Polls or no polls. It’s the media. Right now JounOlist II is plotting how to attack everything Conservative and have Liberals smelling like roses and beaming rays of sunshine. Don’t think ABCNBCCBS isn’t in on it!
Moe, I really wish you would get a fund going to put up billboards to question the media’s integrity. Call it our September surprise. For ONCE, the media goes on defense (sigh).

You mean kind of like how almost all of the economic “experts” are SHOCKED! at the results every month?

What should, and does, scare them are the numbers of people voting in the primaries. If the vote totals in races where there are hot contests on both sides are any indication the Dems are suffering a huge deficit of votes. Missouri, Colorado and several other normally close states tell the tale. Wipeout.

Of course, he isn’t the best prognosticatorr out there, but he isn’t the worse either.

Labor and liberal groups to hold Oct. 2 rally on Mall to counter Beck, Tea Party By Jon Ward – The Daily Caller http://tinyurl.com/35bqute

Can we just go ahead and call this the Wellstone Memorial II now? Can you just imagine the venom that is going to spew out this event. How many D’s can this turn to R’s?

DOOM!!!!

in the polling models, is that Dems could easily end up pouring money into races that they cannot win, and leaving the next tier of “safe” candidates exposed. If you want to know how scared Dems are, watch the food fight over party/pac money.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMSHvgaUWc8

lies, damned lies, and statistics. Now there are four kinds, and the worst is polling. There are polls that are “commissioned” by a party or a special interest of some kind. Do you really believe the pollster isn’t going to taint the poll to get the result the clients want??? Who will ever commission another poll by them if they don’t get the results they want???
Ever notice that large splits in the polls diminish as we get closer to the actual voting day? Or, sometimes reverse altogether? Then the pollsters can say their poll was accurate, because people only remember the reports just before the election anyway. But up to that point many pollsters are trying to sway public opinion, not report it. They know that people want to back a winner, not a loser, so they try to make their client, or their dream, look like the horse to bet on.

The Rasmussen poll is certainly a bas sign for Dems, but I found a poll that I thought was even worse for the Democrats. It is a poll from Public Policy Polling on the Kasich versus Strickland race. Although this result was NOT mentioned in the PPP summary, the data appeared down below:

Who would you rather have as President:
George W. Bush or Barack Obama?
George W. Bush ……………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

This is from the State of Ohio. If Ohio favors Bush by 8 points over Obama, what does this say about the Democrats tactic of linking every candidate to Bush as a smear using a noun, a verb, and Bush? This poll suggests that their own ads are actually HELPING Republicans and conservatives, not huring them. Losing their major talking point, the only thing really going for Democrats and Obama … that is what I would call DOOM.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/wehner/352621

Sometimes we hold to theories that are simply wrong, that are contrary to human nature and the way the world works, but we simply can’t let go of them. We have too much invested in a particular philosophy.
President Obama’s liberal supporters understand that he is in serious trouble right now; what they are doing is scrambling to find some way to explain his problems without calling into question their underlying political philosophy (modern liberalism). If what is happening cannot be a fundamental failure of liberalism, then it must be something else — from a “communications problem” to “structural factors” to a political conspiracy. And you can bet that if things continue on their present course, ideologues on the left will increasingly argue that Obama’s failures stem from his being (a) not liberal enough or (b) incompetent.
If the Obama presidency is seen as damaging the larger liberal project, they will abandon Obama in order to try to protect liberalism. They would rather do that than face an existential crisis

Revive the Newt era contract with some specific changes.

1. No earmarks
2. Cut Government spending 20% from DAY ONE.
3. Secure the borders
4. repeal Obamacare
5. Turn the military loose and let them win.
6. Stand with Israel not against them.
7. Balance budget Act
8. Term limits (hard but wishful thinking)
9. Keep Bush tax cuts.
10. Be proud of this country not apologetic.

This is my top ten and I would enjoy seeing yours.