Sources inside the Trump camp are now leaking to the press that Trump has narrowed his selection down to a choice between Newt Gingrich, Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, and Mike Pence. Of course, it’s entirely possible that the Trump campaign is throwing out intentional misdirection and it ends up being someone completely surprising – and with Trump, that probability is probably higher than most. Especially given the frequency with which Trump acts completely without his staff’s approval or knowledge. But all the public signs point to this being Trump’s line of thinking as he approaches a final decision.

The first two of those are horrible choices, of course. Newt Gingrich would not really help solidify his right flank, and Newt would be a liability in the general, as his national unpopularity remains almost as high as Trump’s. Flynn would be such an intentional slap in the face to the entire GOP that Trump would risk open revolt at the convention – including the delegates’ possible outright rejection of Flynn as VP nominee, leading to a humongous embarrassment for Trump at his moment of greatest triumph. I suspect if it truly is Flynn, Trump will wait as long as possible to make the announcement to forestall any sort of organizing effort to that effect.

Pence is probably the most “do no harm” option left on the board for Trump. Pence’s star has dimmed quite a bit of late and probably won’t help Trump as much as Trump might expect, but nobody gets hurt too badly in the general election dragging Pence along with them – with either the right or the left. At this point, I would be surprised if Pence doesn’t emerge as the VP nod, even though it seems like an excessively safe and out of character choice for Trump. But if the “carefully managed” wing of Trump’s campaign is truly ascendant, then this is the direction I assume they will go.

I suspect that tonight we will know one way or another. If Trump campaigns with Pence tonight and does not announce him as his VP choice, I would actually expect that he has decided to go with Flynn and is holding that card in his back pocket as long as possible.