As always, this is going to be a highly subjective take: my thoughts on each race after the fold. Bottom line: some shifts up, some shifts down, I took out Massachusetts and New Jersey because, really, well, some states are more likely than others.
| Alaska | Mark Begich | Serious Risk |
| Arkansas | Mark Pryor | Serious Risk |
| Colorado | Mark Udall | Some Risk |
| Iowa | Open | Some Risk |
| Louisiana | Mary Landrieu | Serious Risk |
| Michigan | Open | Some Risk |
| Minnesota | Al Franken | Low Risk |
| Montana | Open | Serious Risk |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen | Depends |
| New Mexico | Tom Udall | Low Risk |
| North Carolina | Kay Hagan | Serious Risk |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | Some Risk |
| South Dakota | Open | Serious Risk |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | Some Risk |
| West Virginia | Open | Serious Risk |
(Previous ranking here)
In order:
- Alaska. Good GOP opposition candidates, and Begich is doing his best to distance himself from Barack Obama. His best bet right now would be a party switch.
- Arkansas. Tom Cotton is going to give Mark Pryor a fight… or, increasingly, it’s look like it’s going to be the other way around.
- Colorado. I will probably upgrade this to Serious Risk in the next assessment: Mark Udall is starting to slip. But the Democrats will fight for Colorado, especially since the governorship is also up for grabs.
- Iowa. On the one hand, it’s open; on the other hand, no clear front-runner yet on the GOP side. Call it a wash.
- Louisiana. Mary Landreiu has still picked a bad election cycle to be a member of a party that hates oil production. Also, Obamacare.
- Michigan. I’m bumping this one up to Some Risk: Terri Lynn Land is looking like a good get.
- Minnesota. I am regretfully knocking this one down further to Low Risk: I may think that Al Franken has a glass jaw, but I’m not hearing much to suggest that somebody willing to run for MN-SEN agrees with me. I reserve the right to change this one in a hurry, though.
- Montana. Max Baucus becoming Ambassador to China will probably not actually help his duly designated successor, because Obamacare.
- New Hampshire. I switched this to Depends: we’re all waiting to see what Scott Brown does. If he jumps in (and I expect him to), the race goes to halfway between Some and Serious Risk.
- New Mexico. Tom Udall is staying quiet as a church mouse, and that’s the smart option for him, dang his eyes.
- North Carolina. They should have given Kay Hagan Baucus’s ambassadorship. Her polling isn’t all that.
- Oregon. This is my dark horse bump-up to Some Risk: Oregon has been an Obamacare DISASTER, and if Dr. Monica Wehby is the GOP candidate Jeff Merkley is going to have problems.
- South Dakota. I am only keeping this down at Serious Risk because the highest category is DOOM, and I will not pronounce DOOM until I am sure. But the Democrats have kind of given up, there.
- Virginia. …Tough call. Mark Warner has a good opponent in Ed Gillespie, on paper – but will Ed get the VA GOP all pulling in the same direction? Some say yes, some say no, I say keep watching the skies…
- West Virginia. See South Dakota, with the added point that the Democrats picked a heck of a time to suddenly hate coal production.
As to Republican seats… ehh. I know that Mitch McConnell is behind in the polls in Kentucky, but I also know that McConnell’s team have not Unleashed The Kraken yet. Still, the polls are the polls; check again in four months. As for Georgia… that path for victory for the Democrats still feels kind of theoretical. Michelle Nunn should have run in 2008.
Moe Lane (crosspost)