BIG news out of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals late Monday as a three-judge panel (in a 2-1 vote) has now affirmed a district court temporary restraining order regarding the ongoing dispute over Missouri's congressional redistricting efforts.

It's been quite a roller coaster ride of late in the Show-Me State regarding the state's congressional map. I must confess that I was one of those who thought that once the primary election was held using the new 7-1 map (aka "Missouri First" or HB 1), things were fairly well settled on the matter. Boy, was I mistaken.

In the span of roughly a week, we got: 

As an added wrinkle, Friday (September 18) was the deadline for election authorities to send out overseas and military ballots under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), so a quick turnaround from the 8th Circuit was anticipated.

That put the case before a three-judge 8th Circuit panel Thursday morning, with the judges well aware that the clock was ticking. So, here's what they ruled: 

The court holds that because Missouri conducted the August primary under the 2025 map, switching to the 2022 map for the November general election would violate Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution. The court's key point is that the primary and general election are parts of one process for choosing members of Congress, and that requires “continuity in the constituency throughout all stages of a single election.”

So, the court affirms Clark's TRO and remands the case to the district court with instructions to enter a permanent injunction barring Hoskins — and people acting in concert with him — from using anything other than the 2025/HB 1 map for the November election.

BUT...the district court is instructed to stay that permanent injunction until Monday, September 28, at 5 p.m. Central, specifically to give People Not Politicians (PNP — the group behind the referendum) time to seek Supreme Court review. If SCOTUS hasn't stayed or altered it by then, Hoskins and local election officials must implement the 2025 map.

Some other key aspects of this ruling:

As noted above, the decision was 2-1, with Judge David Stras dissenting only on the issue of standing. He does not take issue with the majority's core Article I, Section 2 analysis — in fact, he opens his dissent by calling it a “probable violation of Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution as interpreted.” His disagreement is that the court should never have gotten there. His reasoning is a bit nuanced, and will keep for another day.

Here's the bottom line: Per today's 8th Circuit ruling, Missouri cannot hold the two halves of the same congressional election using two different sets of districts. Because voters chose the parties' congressional nominees under the 2025 map in August, moving district lines before the November general election would leave hundreds of thousands of voters choosing among candidates they had no opportunity to nominate — while their primary votes helped select candidates they could no longer vote for in November. 

Practically speaking, however, nothing changes just yet. The 2022 map remains in place while the 8th Circuit's permanent injunction is stayed through 5 p.m. Central on September 28, giving PNP a week to ask the Supreme Court to intervene. If SCOTUS doesn't do so by then, Missouri election officials will have to switch back to the 2025 map for November — which means this roller coaster may have one more rather consequential turn or loop left in it.