Oil prices could go down to $40 or $50 a barrel "on the other side" of the Iran conflict, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a weekend interview, as supply coming on that's currently constrained is able to flow freely.
An end to that conflict seems closer than ever due to the success of Operation Economic Fury and this weekend's invocation of "Chicago rules" by CENTCOM in response to Iranian missile strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz (which Streiff expertly covered here). After sinking three (empty) Iranian tankers in response to missile launches targeting two of our ships, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said:
“Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost —taking out three of yours. We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.”
Thanks to the precision and professionalism of American service members, the M/T Kylo sank in the Gulf of Oman today and joined Iran’s navy at the bottom of the sea. pic.twitter.com/OwSDMl8SSQ
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) September 6, 2026
Bessent told Fox News' Lara Trump that the United States is in control of the Strait of Hormuz, and that because "the oil producing nations of the gulf are actually building alternative pipeline routes that will no longer entail oil going through the Strait of Hormuz," Iran won't be able to threaten their neighbors or create a chokepoint in the future.
As a result of the successful blockade, Bessent reports that Iran only has about "30 million barrels of crude oil left that China hasn't bought," and once that supply has run out "there will be no problem with China buying because they have no product.”
Since the U.S. reinstated its blockade, no Iranian crude cargoes have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz to China. Inventory cannot be replenished as crude piles up aboard vessels trapped inside the strait. Iran’s export lifeline is being cut off: stranded oil, finite… pic.twitter.com/isnCgq5V1T
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 4, 2026
While Iranian crude isn't getting through, oil from other Gulf nations is. Fox News' Trey Yingst reported Sunday that while the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is dramatically down since the start of the conflict, the number of barrels a day currently going through is almost back to pre-war levels.
The number of vessels that are actually passing through the strait, it's about 40 percent of what it was from pre-war levels, but the number of barrels of oil is around 18 million a day, and before the war it was 20 million. And so the United States has effectively found a way to bypass Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz.
That is great news not only for the American consumer, but for national and global security.
Watch Bessent's full interview with Lara Trump below.