As we get closer to the midterm elections, there are a few issues, like gas and food prices, looming that Republicans have to be prepared to address. Another one of those issues is homeownership, which has long been a cornerstone of the American Dream. For many Americans, getting that first set of house keys has become an increasingly expensive proposition. New housing numbers released Tuesday underscore just how challenging the market has become, with rising mortgage rates and slowing construction adding to the obstacles facing prospective buyers.

On Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its latest numbers. Single-family housing starts fell by 4.6 percent. Permits for future single-family housing fell by 4.0 percent. The retreat comes with the news that 30-year mortgage rates rose to 7.40 percent and builder confidence is at the lowest level in 14 years. The challenges facing first-time buyers are hardly new. The National Association of Realtors reported last year that the median age of first-time homebuyers had reached a record 40 years old.

Single-family housing starts dropped to a seasonal rate of 859,000, adjusted from the August number of 900,000. Single-family building permits, which are an indicator of future construction, also fell to 845,000 from 880,000. Then, there is the cost of financing that new home, which could be tricky. On Thursday, Freddie Mac announced that, as noted above, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.40 percent, up from 6.27 percent in 2025 and the highest level in three years. 

All these numbers add up to the fact that, with September's median existing home price of $417,500, according to the National Association of Realtors, prospective homebuyers putting 20 percent down would have a monthly principal-and-interest payment at the current 7.40 percent rate of roughly $2,313. At the previous rate of 6.27 percent, that monthly payment would come in at around $2,061. A difference of about $252 per month, or more than $3,000 annually, not counting property taxes and insurance.

Democrats have tried to make "affordability" their buzzword this election cycle. Republicans, meanwhile, have pointed to the tax relief included in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which Democrats opposed. Provisions addressing taxes on tips and overtime earnings could leave eligible workers with more money in their pockets, and that's a message the GOP needs to continue to hammer home. That doesn't eliminate the challenge of buying a home, but it is part of the broader affordability debate.

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Democratic Socialist candidates are also courting younger voters with promises of expansive government programs. An October report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers estimated that implementing a range of policies associated with the Democratic Socialists of America would cost $49 trillion over ten years, or more than $350,000 per household. That's a substantial price tag, and one that deserves scrutiny in any debate over affordability. At that rate, virtually no one is buying houses. 

However, there is good news. Existing home sales increased from August to September by 1.5 percent. Despite the scare tactics of Democrats, if voters can deliver a GOP-led House and Senate for President Trump, Democrats will be prevented from implementing their idea of "affordability."