This evening our time, North Korea fired an intermediate range ballistic missile that passed over the northern part of the northernmost Japanese home island of Hokkaido.

Based on update info from #NHK– #NK #DPRK #NorthKorea missile overflew #Japan at Cape Erimo before landing 1180km away in sea. #Trump #USA pic.twitter.com/tvSfutlm7R

— Billy Burton (@billyb2009) August 28, 2017

It has all the hallmarks of a provocation. Just a week ago, Secretary of State Tillerson commended North Korea on its “restraint.” The launch site was unusual.

The location of this launch is interesting too. ROK JCS reporting that launch took place from near Sunan, site of Pyongyang's Int'l Airport. pic.twitter.com/9jGHDbiGhe

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) August 28, 2017

There is a major exercise underway in the ROK, Ulchi Freedom Guardian, and a much smaller exercise, Northern Viper, underway in Hokkaido

DPRK missile reportedly overflew North Japan. Today is the final day of US-Japan Northern Viper drills on Hokkaido.https://t.co/1aInfnZMfp

— Adam Mount (@ajmount) August 28, 2017

Below chart by David Wright extrapolated a minimum energy trajectory for the KN17 based on the May 2017 flight test data. pic.twitter.com/kFrSMLeTQE

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) August 28, 2017

NK missile launch was carefully calibrated to spur anger BUT avoid incurring a mil response. Unhelpful, but identifiably part of a strategy.

— Christopher Green (@Dest_Pyongyang) August 28, 2017

Breaking: Full statement by #Pentagon spokesman Col Rob Manning on #DPRK #NorthKorea missile launch, assessed to have flown over #Japan pic.twitter.com/RQeIFdUBSS

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) August 28, 2017

Very interesting trajectory map; seems like they wanted to overfly #Japan, while also overflying the least bit of Japanese land necessary. https://t.co/4Lp1F7kgrc

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) August 28, 2017

As always there is a dissenting view, but it was pretty obvious today that Japan wanted some serious cuddle time with the US. So I’m not sure this assessment makes a lot of sense.

Not really less provocative. This fits DPRK strategy of splitting US alliances. It says to our allies: the US can't defend you.

— Adam Mount (@ajmount) August 29, 2017

If you look at the flight path, it passed over Japan, barely, and was aimed well away from US possessions in the Pacific such as Guam and the Marianas because North Korea did not want to inadvertently look like it was firing at the US. And this is very important, it passed over Japan at a sufficient altitude that it did not technically impinge upon Japanese sovereignty  but it kicked their pride pretty hard.

100 kilometers is the generally accepted ceiling on sovereign airspace. https://t.co/VNiWRWvwS4

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) August 29, 2017

550 km up is NOT Japanese airspace. NOT a sovereignty violation (or all LEO satellites are in big trouble)

— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) August 28, 2017

This is not the first time a North Korean missile has been fired across Japan.

Flashback to 1998 N. Korean missile launch over Japan.https://t.co/8lMWmzcc3k

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) August 28, 2017

It's 3rd time in history North Korea has fired a missile or rocket over Japan. Last time was 2009, officials say

— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) August 28, 2017

Since #NorthKorea conducted its first missile test in 1984, it has violated #Japan’s airspace and EEZ several times. Here is a chronology. pic.twitter.com/DPgTrQrbuG

— 🅳🆄🅸🆃🆂 Kjeld Duits (@KjeldDuits) August 29, 2017

But this time is different. The previous three launches were what are known as expendable carrier rockets. Their mission is to toss satellites into orbit, they don’t carry warheads. This was an IRBM.

Lt Gen Maehara at Yokota w/ PAC Iii missile defense: Japan didn't shoot down NK missiles bc not imminent threat to JP pic.twitter.com/reH9WIeqJ5

— Motoko Rich (@motokorich) August 28, 2017

And because the flight trajectory was outside the launch parameters for a Patriot PAC-3, which is a point defense system.

The pace of North Korean launches is accelerating.

Number of DPRK launches by this day for past 3 years:
2014: 17
2015: 13
2016: 19
2017: 18

— Shea Cotton (@Shea_Cotton) August 28, 2017

Quality control on terminal trajectory still seems to be an issue. But, as I’ve said before, this is an engineering and manufacturing problem the North Koreans will inevitably fix.

https://twitter.com/CustosDivini/status/902296231036243968

The North Korean missile landed east of this red mark. Japanese military aircraft are now out looking for debris, local media report pic.twitter.com/hUAgchDmHp

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) August 29, 2017

What comes next is important.

Foreign minister set to hold phone talks with Tillerson to discuss N.K. provocation https://t.co/SfY6HaQL44

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) August 29, 2017

In summary, this seems to have been a carefully calculated exercise at flipping off the United States and Japan. It doesn’t change anything materially.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting a couple of interesting things:

South Korea’s intelligence agency told lawmakers on Monday that North Korea appeared ready to conduct a sixth nuclear test, according to a lawmaker who attended the closed-door session.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R., Calif.), who is leading a U.S. congressional delegation to South Korea, said officials in Seoul had told him that North Korea had successfully miniaturized a nuclear weapon and continues to improve its long-range missile capabilities. “This is very concerning,” Mr. Royce said in an interview following a meeting with Mr. Moon. “We need to be focused right now on keeping up this pressure.”

Putting aside the efficacy of attending a closed door intel briefing when you immediately tell the WSJ what went on behind said closed doors, the fact that the South Koreans believe that the North has a miniaturized weapon and that a sixth nuke test may be imminent indicates the risk it heightening.

We can predict that there will be some kind of ratcheting up of pressure on this. But because North Korea went out of its way to avoid simulating an attack, I wouldn’t look for much. Probably some more businesses associated with North Korea evading sanctions will get hit by US and allied sanctions. This will go before the UN Security Council.

This is how to tell that we are serious: when US nationals are ordered out of Japan and South Korea, buckle your seat belt. That will probably be seen by North Korea as a declaration of war.