So the Republican National Convention is all over. Donald Trump managed to squeak by, preventing rules changes and protests that would either deny him the nomination, or seriously embarrass him on the floor. He gave his speeches, and he took the nomination.

That he’d now see a surge in the polls is normal and expected. So right now, he leads.

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump listens to a question during an interview after a rally in Virginia Beach, Va., Monday, July 11, 2016. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

The most striking measure of Trump’s post-convention surge is the 538 NOWcast. 538 Now has Trump winning in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and Georgia of their 14 battleground states. Taking the biggest ones is a great way to win the election!

And so as a result, 538 says if the election were held today, Donald Trump would have a 58% chance of winning, a shocking turn of events! He’s expected to get 285 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 253.

However looking past the post-convention hysteria, the results flip. Taking into account everything we know, it’s Clinton that gets a 58% chance of winning, and a 283-255 electoral vote advantage.

I predict the DNC will sound messy, but will help Clinton, just as the messy RNC ended up helping Trump. Lots of favorable speeches and free media coverage tend to do that.