I think Cook has got this one pegged wrong. If we promote Jackie she will win. She is a different GOP candidate to represent this congressional district. The previous GOP to represent here were Hiler and Chocula, and they were Chamber of Commerce GOP types. I am certainly not suggesting anything is wrong with Chris Chocula. I am just saying Jackie is an exciting Tea Party candidate that won her primary with over 60% of the votes.

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Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

I can tell you that Joe Donnelly is in hot water. Hotline reported a few weeks ago that Joe has spent more money on polling than any candidate in Congress. This district is closely divided. As Jackie said, the independents decided the result each time. If the GOP surge is as strong as we think it will be, the 2nd district will be one of the first to flip on election night (Indiana reports first). Many people here in Indiana feel that Jackie will be the Hoosier version of Michele Bachmann in Congress, with perhaps a bit more bite.

One other note… in 2006, the 2nd, 8th, and 9th districts turned blue. These are the swing districts in Indiana. There is no reason to think that those three won’t swing back to red this year, especially if the surge is stronger than 06. If the GOP is going to do well, Indiana will be the test case on election night.

He’s used to tracking 30-40 districts closely, which is the normal amount of competitive seats in the average election over the last 20-25 years. This year seats are becoming competitive that haven’t been so in a long time – like the open seats held by Murtha, Obey, and Stupak.

Geraghty has estimated there could be as many as 90-100 seats in play this year. That’s more than twice what Cook is really equipped to evaluate. I do expect Cook will catch up to it, but that won’t come for another couple of months at least.

If Republicans could win half of Geraghty’s lower-end estimate, that’s 45 seats – more than enough to take control of the House.