Kirkland Fire and Rescue ambulance workers walk back to a vehicle after a patient was loaded into an ambulance, Tuesday, March 10, 2020, at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., near Seattle. The nursing home is at the center of the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Washington state. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

 

Update: (Monday) I posted this on Sunday night. Overnight, all of these numbers were revised downward – sharply. Updated figures can be found here. (The drop-down menu in the green stripe lists each state.) An interactive feature allows you to look at projections for any date. My colleague, Nick Arama, posted about the revisions here.

We might not want to bet the ranch on the latest model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, but they have come out with a new report which forecasts the date the coronavirus is expected to peak and the likely number of deaths in each state. This projection assumes full social distancing through May, which is not the case with the earlier IHME model (used by the White House) that was widely criticized last week. The results in the new forecast are more realistic, although they still appear to be a little high.

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IHME explained why they created these models. They wrote, “Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan.”

The model forecasts that the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. (2,644) will occur on April 16. It also predicts that New York will peak on April 10 when 855 will die. But New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is cautiously optimistic that deaths in the Empire State may already be peaking. He told reporters, “You could argue that you are seeing a plateauing.” On Friday, the state reported 562 deaths. On Saturday, the number was 630 and on Sunday, it was 594.

Cuomo also said hospitals in the state just saw a “slight drop in intensive care admissions” and the number of patients who require ventilators. He added that the hospital discharge rate is “way up.”

He said he cannot be sure if this is the apex, but he called it “great news.”

The Hill’s Anagha Srikanth explains that this model is a “preprint” which means it has not been reviewed by peers.

Here are the state-by-state numbers (via The Daily Wire) through April 4. Updated figures can be found here. (The drop-down menu in the green stripe lists each state.) An interactive feature allows you to look at projections for any date.