In a piece that can really only be described as the gentlest alarm bells one could read, MS NOW's Eugene Daniels writes a sort of in-the-moment profile of Abdul El-Sayed as he is confronted with something everyone else has known for months: He could very easily lose this Senate race.
El-Sayed is shown a video clip from Detroit activist Tashawna Gill, in which she explains that black voters are showing up to vote, but not for him.
“They’re skipping that part of the ballot,” Gill said, according to the MS NOW piece. “We do the senior home tour, and they’re not interested. They skipped that on the ballot. They have returned their absentees, and some of them have shared that they’ve returned their absentees without checking the box for anything for the Senate race.”
Neighborhoods normally lined with yard signs are empty. Voters don't seem to have any level of excitement about the Senate race. Mike Rogers' campaign is hitting Detroit, something Republicans rarely do. Some voters see his "Uncommitted" position in 2024 over the Biden administration's support for Israel as a key reason Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump. And, on top of it all, El-Sayed's past statements, connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, and his complicated relationship with the DSA make his campaign an even longer shot.
Tensions Between Arab Americans and Black Americans
Portia Roberson, a former member of the Obama administration and CEO of Focus: HOPE, told MS NOW that there is a level of animosity between black voters and Arab-Americans.
“It has seemingly been that Arab people have been able to move to Detroit in this area and find ways to be successful, whether that is owning gas stations, whether that is owning party stores," she said. "And that Blacks who have been here have been locked out of those places."
There may also some resentment between the two groups over 2024. The Uncommitted movement of 2024, Democrats who stayed on the sidelines over the Biden administration's support of Israel, is for some a key reason that Harris didn't win in 2024 and the White House went back to Donald Trump. El-Sayed declared himself a member of that movement at the time, and some folks haven't forgotten that.
It's Not Just PAC Money
El-Sayed was quick to blame the PAC money that has come in and eroded the black community's trust in him. But the distrust runs deeper than just political money. There are real issues with who El-Sayed is as a person that have made voters so hesitant.
And when you look at the numbers, and you look at the data on the ground, MS NOW has stumbled across a hard truth that will play out across more than just the Michigan Senate race this cycle: You could see a lot less crossover vote in some swing states and a lot more voter apathy. If black voters leave the top of the ballot blank, Democrats can still have a good showing in Michigan. Just not in the Senate race.
El-Sayed's ultra-progressive views (he portrays himself as a capitalist who is in favor of heavy regulations and public investment while denying any real affiliation with the DSA even as they continue to support him) turn voters away. Public polling shows that Democrats aren't very popular right now, but are instead reaping the benefits of Republicans being held responsible for the state of the economy.
Socialism remains deeply unpopular among voters. El-Sayed's views, whether he embraces the DSA or not, are tied to the growing socialist wave among the Democrat Party. The problem isn't just racial tensions between the black and Arab communities, but tensions between the far-left and the roughly 70-80 percent of America that isn't aligned with their views.
The Alarm Bells
Black voters are ignoring the Senate race. Yard signs are nowhere to be seen in the black community. Those are the alarm bells that MS NOW is focused on, and for good reason: The progressives that run that newsroom know black support is key to beating Republican voters. But it isn't just the black vote in Michigan. Plenty of questions remain about who Abdul El-Sayed really is and what kind of Senator he'll be.
Racism, Islamophobia, PAC money, and all the usual suspects will continue to take the blame. But El-Sayed himself has been a bad candidate, and his campaign has not done nearly enough to overcome the real challenges facing them.
Mike Rogers could very well win this race, and the Democrats will have no one but themselves to blame if he does.