Why McCain's centrist strategy is a recipe for defeat

Liberal Republicans, led by John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Rick Moran and David Frum, are now waging a war to liberalize the Republican Party, i.e. to remold it into a clone of the Democratic Party “in McCain’s center-right image” as the media say. David Frum claims that the GOP needs to become a “centrist” party to attract “moderates”, independent voters and Democrats and points to the “Modernization strategy” of David Cameron.

Cameron has turned the party of Winston Churchill into nothing more than a clone of the British socialist party. He has violated his “cast-iron” pledge to organize a referendum on the undemocratic Lisbon Treaty if he’s elected. He has refused to promise to allow British citizens to own and use guns (even for sportive purposes). He has endorsed the “high-speed-rail” boondoogle. He fervently believes in the “global warming” lie and has endorsed “green taxes”. He opposes the construction of a third runway at the LHR airport.

But if the “Modernization strategy” of David Camoron (as he is frequently called) is the model for these liberal Republicans, then they will surely produce an electoral disaster. The evidence shows that Cameron’s strategy, which made the “Conservative Party” a mere clone of the British “Labor Party” (i.e. the British socialist party), derisively called “the Blue Labour Party”, has failed abysmally.

The most recent opinion polls suggest that if a British general election occured today, the “Conservative Party” would fail to win a majority of seats, and would be 23 seats short of a majority. Those polls are based on the assumption that Cameron’s men would get 37% of the votes, the socialists would win 30%, and the Liberal Democrats would win 18.64%. Some earlier polls suggested that the socialists will win the 2010 British general election.

So rather than allow the party of Churchill to recapture Westminster and Downing Street, Cameron’s “Modernization Strategy” has made that party a mere clone of the British socialist party, thus alienating millions of its voters. McCain’s “centrist” strategy would, likewise, alienate the GOP’s voters while failing to attract moderates and Democrats.

Almost all of the voters of the Democratic Party (about 90%) are strident liberals who wouldn’t vote for the GOP under any circumstances. The GOP competes for its voters not with the Democrats, but with right-wing third-parties such as the Libertarian Party, the Constitution Party and the NY Conservative Party. Those parties “steal” hundreds of thousands (sometimes even millions) of voters from the GOP everytime the Republican Party nominates a liberal for an office. Most “independents” are fiscal conservatives who oppose Big Government, and they, too, don’t vote for liberal Republicans.

For example, George H. W. Bush implemented liberal policies as president (e.g. he violated his “no new taxes” pledge). The GOP nonetheless nominated this failed president in 1992, so conservatives dumped the GOP and voted for a third-party candidate, Ross Perot, who did not win the election but “stole” enough voters from Bush to ensure that he wouldn’t win.

Similarly, when Republican Party nominated John McCain (the most liberal Republican nominee since Gerald Ford) for President, millions of conservatives stayed home or voted for a third party candidate. Thus, the GOP achieved its worst presidential election result since 1964. It should be noted that without Sarah Palin as the GOP’s Vice Presidential candidate, that result would’ve been even worse than it was.

The truth that liberal Republicans need to understand is that a party cannot be acceptable to everyone, and cannot woo its sworn opponents while betraying its principles, because by doing so, it alienates its loyal voters. As long as the GOP continues to nominate liberals for the Presidency or for the offices of non-liberal states, it will remain a minority party.