Diary

Indiana Presidential Primary Poll

Since normally Indiana doesn’t matter in the Presidential primary process, and since there is no contested gubernatorial races this year, there have been no published polls. Well, Howey Politics and the local NBC affiliate have commissioned one:

http://www.wthr.com/story/31792956/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-trump-clinton-ahead-in-indiana

No crosstabs yet.

They have

Trump 37%
Cruz 31%
Kasich 22%

Of course, Trump usually under-performs and Cruz over performs and it only totals 90%, but there you go. More details are coming, but that gets us started.

Politico has reported that there are private polls that sound like they have the same numbers.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-cruz-indiana-primary-polls-222287

It is about to get fun in the Hoosier State.

UPDATE: WTHR has just updated the story linked above with “Net Favorability” numbers for the candidates. Very odd numbers from my point of view:

Overall: Trump +16, Cruz +16, Kasich +25
Women 18-54: Trump +1, Cruz +33, Kasich +30
Women 55+: Trump +14, Cruz +8, Kasich +27

I’m not even sure what to make of those numbers.

UPDATE 2: Fox News has released their poll of Indiana which has the race at Trump 41, Cruz 33, Kasich 16 (still 10% not listed). I trust this one a bit more than the Howey Politics, but I am still not discouraged by the results per comments below.

By the way, it is irritating that neither of these even pretend to discuss districts as Indiana partially allocates the delegates by congressional district.

One other point from the Fox News poll: they say that 25% of voters can change their mind. That seems very high, which is what we want.