Diary

Kasich Remains a Spoiler, a Loser, and Trump's best hope for Victory

What purpose does Kasich serve at this point? Since Rubio withdrew from the race in mid-March, Kasich, on the strength of his sole home-state win, stayed in. And while Cruz has garnered over 100 delegates in WI, UT, CO and WY, and Trump got a 100 delegates, mainly out of New York, Kasich got 3 whole delegates. Kasich is STILL running 4th in a 3 man race, a remarkable failure.

If his campaign ‘thing’ was to play where Cruz couldn’t play, like in New York, he did a poor job of it. Kasich did not beat and is not beating Trump anywhere, barely made a dent in New York, and is on track to lose all across the northeast. While Cruz has managed to beat Trump in a number of states, albeit west of the Mississippi, Kasich is 0 for 35 in contests outside his home state. In the rest of the states, Kasich trails Trump and Cruz both. In a few northeast states where Cruz doesn’t play well, Kasich’s only ‘credit’ will be that he will manage to come in 2nd instead of 3rd.

Here is why Kasich is a spoiler: Cruz would have Indiana and win it hands-down if Kasich withdrew. By staying in, Kasich may deliver Indiana to Trump, just as he helped Trump in early states, helped Trump get a few districts in Wisconsin, and acted as a #neverTrump vote splitter elsewhere. if the argument was that Kasich would stop Trump in some districts – it’s failed.  Kasich is splitting off the moderate not-Trump voters from getting behind Ted Cruz.  In New York exit polls, two-thirds of Kasich voters felt they could support Cruz, but only a third of them could support Trump:

Suffice it to say that Kasich’s largely upper-middle-class, largely college-educated moderates are of a different sort than Trump’s working-class, high school-educated moderates. We can see this in the New York exit polling, where only 33 percent of Kasich supporters said that they would definitely not vote for Cruz if he were the nominee, while 72 percent of his voters said that they would not support Trump if he were the nominee. Many would ultimately stay home in a Cruz/Trump primary, but of those who voted, more would probably go to Cruz than to Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/21/how_the_republican_race_plays_out_from_here_130351.html

By next Tuesday, there will be dozens of delegates that Cruz would have won if Kasich had dropped out but which will go to Trump instead. This is in particular true across Pennsylvania and Maryland.  In Indiana, Trump is under 40% Cruz is running close behind in latest poll. If Kasich dropped out, Cruz would get the lion’s share of Kasich’s vote, win by 10 points or more, clean up the nomination. This adds up to easily 50 delegate swing in a race that is coming down to the last 50 delegates. The nomination rests in John Kasich’s hands – and his hands are giving it to Trump.

If Kasich were running for the VP slot, he could very easily ‘cut the deal’ and make that happen, annoint the nominee he wants – Trump or Cruz – and ‘win’ the VP slot. Sure, Kasich is annoying, but it would be worth the party unity to make it happen. Do it right and either Cruz or Trump could win on the first ballot in such a scenario.

But of course John Kasich insists he’s not running for VP.

So if Kasich and Trump voters are so diametrically opposed, and if Kasich has no interest in being a VP, what on earth is Kasich in for? Is he really that deluded that he thinks – deus ex machina – the guy who is 4th in delegates and votes cast would be the nomination savior and be the Presidential nominee?

Or is there something to this? that Charlie Black and Paul Manafort are business partners, and they are working it for their benefit. The lobbyist-powers-that-be have a lot of interest in stopping the real anti-establishment guy – Ted Cruz – and the phony Donald Trump is returning to his cronyist establishment roots and letting lobbyists run his operations just as he has done his whole life. And the ‘deal’ is all about helping the lobbyist powers that be NOT get disturbed at all.

Whatever it is, the bottom-line is this: John Kasich is being nothing but a spoiler to prevent Cruz from uniting the #stopTrump forces, and in that way will deliver more delegates and ultimately the nomination to Trump.  And for that Kasich will join the rogue’s gallery of enablers of Deceptive Donald.