Romney Wins ... It's a Wrap

Erick E and other Redstate wishful thinkers may want to pretend its not really over, but Romney’s lopsided win in Florida and his sweep of the delegates is exaclty the win he wanted to have to get him closer to wrapping up the nomination.

Some of the odd statements made by Erick:  If I were a national Republican operative, I’d be very worried about tonight.

Wrong, the Congressional folks and other candidates now can breathe a sigh of relief that neither Newt nor a brokered convention are looming to create risks and uncertainties. Romney won big enough that, as in 2008, the race will peter out and wind down before super Tuesday. And turnout is not indicator of anything other than there was less on the ballot this year.

Also, this odd claim that Romney is hated by the base, is likely a figment of the uber-activist-right, and not a real trend.

The Romney win in Florida was huge. He won the hispanic vote. He split tea party activists and evangelicals.  …   He still has a fractured base and lost the heart of the base. He has trouble with tea party activists and evangelicals …

So he has trouble with them,  but he won their vote in a primary to a large extent? How is that proof of anything? The underlying insinuation, that Romney is unacceptable to many Republicans, is false. He polls as more acceptable than other candidates like Newt or Ron Paul with GOP primary voters.

And then there is one bit of data worth noticing. If you add Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum together, they come in a point behind Mitt Romney.

True but irrelevent.  If Santorum pulled out, half his support would go to Romney.  If Newt pulled out, 100% would not go to Santorum. So their support cant be added. At some point people decide to not bother to influence who the winner is, but to register their support.  You will continue to have a fractured vote. At 46%, Romney is winning a near-majority, which makes him untouchable no matter who drops out or stays in.

Which is why it’s a wrap. The other candidates lack organization, money, momentum … and most importantly, the VOTES. The other states coming up, after Romney’s big win here, will likely all deliver for Romney. All the ‘establishment’ will want to get it over and so the flagging campaign will either close up after the Feb primaries or fade away. Either way, the effort to get a ‘not-Romney’ nominated has failed.

Romney will be our nominee.