The Past 60 Days - Conventions, Debates, Bounces, and Momentum Shifts

The Romney debate bounce has now dwarfed the DNC bounce, and may turn into a lasting momentum shift.

Tuesday’s debate is key. Romney CANNOT “lose” that debate in the eyes of the public — his lead is too narrow, and a shift of momentum back to Obama will push him back into the lead, because Romney actually polls BETTER nationally than he does state-to-state where it counts for electoral votes.

Romney’s 1-2% lead nationally at the moment is misleading. EVs decide it, and it’s tight.

The good news is that it has become clear that Paul Ryan “won” the VP debate where it counts–preventing voters from once again shifting in their support.  Since the debate, the overall trend of declining support for Obama and rising support for Romney has once again resumed.  For today (October 14th, not pictured above) the Romney gap widened again, as today’s updated numbers from both Rasmussen and Gallup show Mr. Romney ahead, 49% to 47%.