Diary

Contested Convention Countdown: Trump can only afford to lose 271 delegates

So:

As we all know, it takes 1237 required to win on the first ballot…

Donald Trump has 739 in the bag so far…

There are 944 delegates still up for grabs.

Trump needs 498 delegates to win the primary outright.

However, of those 944, 175 are unbound delegates (American Samoa (9 delegates), Colorado (37 delegates), Guam (9 delegates), North Dakota (28 delegates), Wyoming (29 delegates), and the U.S. Virgin Islands (9 delegates) – plus 54 from Pennsylvania).

This means that only 769 of the remaining delegates are ACTUALLY WINNABLE.

If Trump loses 272 delegates between now & June 8th, we *will* have a contested convention.

So how does that happen?

Cruz should easily take: 
Wisconsin: 42
Nebraska: 36
South Dakota: 29
Montana: 27
Total: 105


And Cruz winning at least some of these are possible (he would only need 167):

Oregon: 28
Washington 44
California: 172
Total: 244

And if we are really lucky/good/blessed:
Indiana: 57

That can be done by without winning (or even campaigning in) a single state east of Indiana, so long as a solid effort is made to ensure that the unbound delegates are all some flavor of ‘Not Trump’. Doesn’t matter *what* flavor – those 54 PA delegates can be die-hard backers of the damn dead-catfish, for all I care…

We will be below 1237

Now, the big caveat is that the CLOSER we are to 1237 for Trump, the easier it is for him to lie/bribe/cheat/threaten his way to the nomination… If he misses it by 1 vote, it’s likely that there is at least ONE unbound delegate who will trade his soul for whatever Trump is selling…

But we are really not that far off from ‘the goal’.