Diary

Why I Still Think McCain Is Going To Win This Election

From ABC to Charlie Rose; and on Charlie Rose they were especially swooning, the media basically waved McCain’s white flag for him after the debate. One Charlie Rose alone they spent 20 minutes of the first half glowing over Obama’s performance and how he handed McCain’s ass to him in the debate. Doris Kerns Goodwin was like, “We’re going to look back at this debate as a moment in history after Obama’s leave the White House and we’re going to see this debate as his defining moment” Doris Kerns Goodwin god bless her but she’s getting ahead of herself just a tad. Were the American people and the media watching the same town hall debate last night? Then you had Matthew Dowd and the ABC pack handing this race and the debate over to Obama without any effort into their praise of McCain’s performance. Come on guys at least try hard enough to hide your weariness of Republicans and your absolute desire to see Barack Obama crush McCain into a fine powder next month.

But above all the media anointing and the high praise of “the One” Despite all of that, I still think McCain is going to win this election and here’s how I got there.

You need not look back farther than the Democratic Primary circa New Hampshire post Iowa. If you recall the media not only gave Obama this nomination but they idiotically and in their arrogance looked too far ahead to when Obama was sitting in the Oval Office swirling around in his chair saying, “cool I’m president” as if he were Tom Hanks in Big. They were almost certain Obama would run the table and clinched the nomination in a shorter time frame than he actually did. But once again the media displayed their complete and utter moronic arrogance for all to see. When it came down to it New Hampshire panned out a different way for Obama. Hillary Clinton stole the state from him and that left the media so baffled they did what they’ve known for years; they played the race card. You see Obama had a 10 point lead going into the week of the New Hampshire Primary and yet Hillary Clinton somehow cut that lead down to a 5 point lead the day of the actual primary.

I think the polls lie in this case. I think Obama’s lead is merely on momentum and not actual voters moving toward him based on policy and preference. I think the media exaggerates about these polls because I do think we’re going to see an incident like we saw in New Hampshire; where Obama had a pretty big lead yet lost in the end.Obama’s momentum now is similar to his momentum after Iowa. He basically rode a wave into New Hampshire and again, he couldn’t close the deal. Throughout the Primary he had trouble closing the deal even when he was obviously ahead in total delegates and states won. Now that has to worry the Obama camp when their candidate seems to peak earlier than traditional candidates. McCain is the type to hang around; he has staying power while Obama peaks high and ends lower than expected. You have to ask yourself in a year of economic Armageddon, a Republican Party in shambles, an unpopular president, and the entire country tired of Republicans for the most part; why isn’t Obama ahead in every state with a 10-15 point lead nation wide? The media fails in their love of Obama to explain that. Why, if this candidate is the “once in a generational leader” only leading John McCain by 9; and in some national polls by 5 and his lead is falling. Obama went from 50 down to 49 and in some cases to 46.

I think at the end of the day when voters go to the polls they’re going to vote for the lesser of two evils. Obviously the voters who don’t make up the base of either candidate view this election as one between two evils; and they’re just trying to decide who is the lesser of the two. It’s like choosing between a bicycle and a unicycle as a means to get across country. I think the media is purposely leaving out Barack Obama’s “Reagan Democrat” deficit. You have to wonder how someone could be “surging” in the polls yet has an obvious problem in convincing a large group of voters to support him. It makes you wonder if those polls aren’t basically Obama supporters taking part in a nation or state wide poll. Just as I seriously suspect his supporters are crowding the internet and tipping the side of the post-debate polls in his favor; and the media taking that poll and running with it as if it were a legitimate source of where the country stands as of now.

And so my statement is this, everyone from George Stephanoupolus to Matt Dowd said Obama won the debate last night, yet Katie Couric read a poll that said the American people basically ruled the debate a draw and that both candidates tied on questions of favor ability, preparedness to be president, and substance. Hmm, seems like the media forgets to be a collective bias machine sometimes.

And despite the media created conventional wisdom a tie is not good for Obama because he should be running away with this and the fact that he can’t drop the hammer on a guy like McCain who has economic literacy disorder is a telling sign that things are what they appear to be.

So we’ve learned many things last night. The polls lie, Obama’s momentum has served him well, and McCain is still going to win but barely because of his ability to stick around and Obama’s unfortunate early peaking problem and his inability to close the deal. Ask yourself, if he couldn’t even close out Hillary with a lead in states won, total delegates and 5 primaries to go what makes you so sure he can close the deal on McCain with a 5 point lead that seems to be falling back a little bit?

So all you guys on the right need not panic or urinate; things are going to be fine.