Analysis of the North Carolina Senate race that plays up the late breaking Hagan scandals as the source of the Tillis victory is seriously flawed. In fact, black voters gave Tillis his victory, a victory engineered by the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee. Rasmussen Reports chronicles the use of a mere $321K to end Hagan’s political career and send Thom Tillis to the Senate in a 100 million dollar senate race.
The usual approach for Republican candidates/parties/allies is to not communicate with minority voters at all. The theory goes that if you advertise to minority voters it will just upset them and swamp GOP candidates with higher minority voter turnouts. The Democrats discovered some time ago that it doesn’t take two to tango, that they can generate controversy on black radio regardless of what the GOP does, define the Republican brand as evil and destroy it by running 30 years of “Vote Democratic because Republicans want to starve your moma and shoot your son ads.” And they can do this with no fear of even a response from the GOP.
Tillis had a very tough environment in which to operate. For two years, Democrat activists protested that they could no longer use public money to push leftie policy. These Money Monday protests compared the GOP legislators to segregationists at best and at worst to Dynamite Bob Chambliss, a Democrat terrorist, who was convicted of the bombing of the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, AL resulting in the deaths of four school girls. In addition, the Democrats deployed state of the art microtargeting to motivate the base to vote.
As the campaign director of the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee, I convinced the rest of the senior leadership that we should intervene in the NC Senate race to defeat [mc_name name=’Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’H001049′ ] and elect Thom Tillis. The strategy was straight forward. The Committee would buy eight weeks of the radio on Urban Contemporary stations (the Tom Joyner Morning Show). The ads would be hard hitting, run eight times a day, draw a stark contrast on policy and most importantly support Thom Tillis and all Republicans and oppose [mc_name name=’Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’H001049′ ] and all Democrats. The ads would also use the popularity of Dr Ben Carson to help Tillis and raise Carson’s profile among black voters. Iowa based GOP Strategist Tom Donelson produced the ads and placed the buys.
The idea was to prevent the Democrats from running the terrorist ads they normally run to spike black turnout. Hopefully, it would force Democrats to debate policy issues like life, marriage, school choice, taxes, and regulation which takes Democrats off message. And finally, for the first time these ads would lay out the contrast on these issues so that the 35% to 38% of black voters who self identify as conservative would hear the policy contrast in the radio venues they audit, know and trust.
The campaign started on September 10th in four media markets adding a fifth, Charlotte, two weeks later reaching 70% of the state’s black population. These ads would reach 25% of the black vote in each market each day and a whopping 50% of black voters each week. Rasmussen Reports polling cross tabs document the effectiveness of the campaign. Rasmussen ran three polls in this race during our radio campaign. The first was September 12th two days after the campaign started. The second was October 7th just short of half way through the campaign. The last was October 30th five days before the election. 336 577-9304
This strategy stands in stark contrast to the Reince Pribus Minority Engagement strategy spending $10 million on young black and hispanic staffers to do retail politics and “tell old Pharoah to let my people go.” It will take these operatives until to 24th Century to reach 50% of black folk in a media market, something we did each week. That is why we call the Pribus strategy the “Star Trek” solution.
Six years ago exit polling indicated that Dole received 1% of the black vote while Hagan got 96%. The Democrats were sure if they could turn out black voters so they were 20% of the votes cast, Hagan would win. Not surprisingly, the Rasmussen September 12th poll showed Tillis at 1% and Hagan at 81%.
However, by October 7th Tillis had moved to 5%, a whopping 21% undecided or supporting the Libertarian and Hagan was at a crisis level only 74% of the black vote. White Democrats can’t jump meaning there is no white Democrat who can win an election in the South with just 75% of the black vote.
Democrats rolled out the terrorist ads hoping to stop the bleeding. They ran ads that said Thom Tillis supported stand your ground legislation that would result in more Trayvon Martins. Out came the palm cards with scenes of the white Democrats lynching black Republicans in the 40’s with a caption “If Hagan loses Obama will be impeached.” The syndicated DJ Tom Joyner even had Hagan favorably interviewed on the his show where the morning and evening drive ads were killing Hagan’s re-election prospects.
Incredibly, Hagan, the Democrat Party and their owners; environmentalist wackos, the teachers union, the trial lawyers, and the SIEU, the purple people beaters, never contested the assertions in our ads…
- that [mc_name name=’Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’H001049′ ] did not care that 3 black babies are killed by abortion for every 1 white baby,
- that Hagan takes money from us to pay Planned Parenthood to kill black babies,
- that [mc_name name=’Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’H001049′ ] sent her children to private school but does not want black kids in that school,
- that she opposed the Washington DC scholarship program while Tillis passed low income K-12 scholarships as House Speaker,
- that she did not represent the children or parents but the union,
- that she was willing to sacrifice every black child to the union for politics,
- that she supports the fringe policy of the EPA to close coal fired plants and double the cost of electricity,
- that she voted for your money go to green projects including her son, husband and son-in-law.
All the king’s slanders and all the king’s lynching libel could not put Humpty-Hagan back together again. The final Rasmussen poll of Oct 30 tells the story of the election five days ahead of time. Tillis 12% Hagan 81%. Exit polls say Tillis got 11.9% of the black vote. The difference between Tillis’ 1% of the black vote on Sept 12 and the exit poll number with the Democrats exceeding their black electorate goal to 21% is 2.14% of the total vote . Tillis’ margin of victory was 1.6%.
This successful approach to win a 100 million dollar senate race with a mere $321K poses a grave threat to the Democrat party. Or it would if the GOP wasn’t the stupid party exclusively chasing the mythical marginal white voter. Even though this restore the gop brand with radio approach has been successful in every media market in which has been used since 2002 (except in Ohio 2008) by the late Richard Nadler (hot link to minority engagement pages rbr), Tom Donelson, and now the Draft Ben Carson for President Committee, it is far from clear that the GOP will end its refusal to engage black voters with a clear policy contrast through the media they know and trust.
Vernon Robinson, a Bush 41 political appointee and former city councilman, is the Campaign Director of the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee.