This is Part II of a series. Part I can be found here.
You can learn a lot just by staring at a chart. With me, it’s a gift. I was in charge of production scheduling for a billion dollar company for several years.
Some of our research comes from the Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index) which ranks each Congressional district Dem-GOP as a percentage of its vote versus the national average in the three prior elections. Nancy Pelosi’s CAL-08, for instance, has a DEM +35 rating, and she normally gets 80%-83% of the vote in her district. If I wanted to peese her off, as they say in the Mission district, I’d find legal ways to drive a little wedge between her and some of those constituencies. All I’d need is an inexpensive delivery system, already knowing I’m not going to cause her to lose her seat. But in other districts, especially if I let them know we’re coming (sometimes this is a good thing), the annoyance factor can increase by a factor of 10, while walking back the numbers from 5 to 10 points. There is a good in that, as I’ll explain, below.
Using Cooks PVI as an overview, some useful facts many of you already know: 70 seats in the House are now held by Democrats that Cooks rates as a Republican-leaning district. 70! Only 9 are held by GOP in Democrat-leaning districts. All of those should be in play in November plus a few Cooks rate as even. By bunching the districts in weighted categories, +1-+9 (single digits) representing the most vulnerable, then +10-+19 (firmer), then +20-+29 (firm), and then +30 and up, (super firm): the party power ratings break out this way:
- ………………….0-+10 +11-+19 +20-+29 +30 up
- Republicans 121 93 20 0
- Democrats 83 67 29 25
Yes, Republican leaning-districts actually do outnumber Democrats. Conventional polling wisdom is that only those in the 0-+10 categories would be expected to shift this election by conventional markers, although, as I wrote earlier, no one has yet measured this new outrage-based sea change among voters, so the Tea Party explosion can possibly (expect it) roll over into those double digit categories. With the right themes by candidates (and I can’t stress this enough…words like “repeal”, Dr Dan’s “congressional-activist”, etc., make your own list of slogans), there can be general carnage out there come November.
OUR PURPOSE HERE: While all the money is being directed at winning those elections in districts that appear winnable, we want to find ways to begin moving Democrat numbers backward, say from a +35 to a +29, or a +20 to a +15, and to find ways that are clever, inexpensive and really sneaky, geared to inflame the passions of the Democrats and their friends on the Left. While everyone else is out trying to win elections, against everything I ever believed and for years I’ve told all my “lost cause” friends in the South, “Get over it”, still, henceforward this will be Bushmills’ Exception to the Rule of Lost Causes: Never join one, or even take pity on one…unless you can make it Less Lost. And why not have some sport doing it…as we plan to do in annoying the living hell out of Democrats in a few of their districts this year, hopefully many more by 2012. Laisser les bons temps rouller!…but please don’t confuse what I write below with a winning strategy, although we think some of the perspectives offered here will help some candidates in their district, again, if they can find an expensive delivery system.
I also hope you can see without too much explaining here what sort of effect this can have in Dem districts over the next few cycles if we can start chipping away at their home-based assumptions, the taken-for-granted vote, for then other things can happen all across the electoral map.
(By the way, the Dems/Left have been doing this for years, which explains why GOP numbers are bunched up at the lower end of that PVI scale. But I repeat, we think we have superior ammunition, and certainly some ammunition the Dems/Left can never use, for we play on natural and noble impulses inside individuals the Left only wants to snuff out. By and large, well over half the Democrat constituencies are contrived and manufactured, OK, bought and paid for, but with many people who might accept a second reading of their contract with the Party, if offered, along with a possible ladder out. (Remember, from Part I, having seceded from the Constitution, Democrats no longer have a natural constituency except Marxists and would-be aristocrats…but I repeat myself…so all that is left for us to do is separate the salvageable from those things better left swimming in the sewer.)
It’s a simple process. You can even do this at home in your bathrobe. First identify the group. A single person will do. A classroom, I’m reminded by MrRiggio, is even better. Churches are super. If you’re running for public office you may want to broaden this outreach a bit. Then identify that one thing, a Wedge, or maybe even a couple, that will elicit a positive response; self-respect, pride, integrity, common sense, morality, ambition (don’t get too clever)…buttons you know can be pushed easily, without infringement on personal boundaries. Most of us already know those messages/buttons by heart. What we want to do then is come up with simple, inexpensive delivery systems for people who don’t read newspapers, don’t listen to talk radio, don’t watch CNN or even Katie, can’t remember anything about the shoulders they’re standing on, or generally care about anything other than their babies, their own appetites and how to feed them…but nevertheless are still morally grounded, have some basic common sense, and have some sense of personal pride and integrity. In other words, get to them with street talk and whispers, then reinforce that the same way iPod, Geico, Rock 101.5 or Soul 98.7, Gigante Sabado and Jeremiah Wright do. There are more of them than you think, and some of the most clever thinkers and graphics designers I’ve ever seen are right here on RedState. So independent ideas will abound, and we’ll be standing by to copy down every one of them. Lastly, for politicians, you’ll need to reinforce this wedge (as I’ll explain) so a little repetition helps, so don’t just say it once then walk away. That’s Obama-speak, not Reagan-talk.
In the end, we want to cull them from the Democrat herd. Pollsters don’t look for these people at all. Political advertisers don’t look for these people at all. Hand-gripping candidates don’t go onto their turf to shake their hands, hoping instead to find then in Melba’s Cafe having coffee. However, left wing community organizers always have looked for them, only like Dr Faustus, seeking souls to buy. But on our side of the coin so do preachers, and now us, conservatives…looking for souls to pull out of the Pit. It’s going to be a fight again…on their turf.I’ve divided the Democrat constituency into three groups, Mobile Voters, Captive Voters (where we think we can move numbers back, but not necessarily in the same way), and the Unsaved, (for identification purposes only) who account for the other half of the Democrat voter base. I’ll concentrate on the first two.
Mobile Voters are those who will shift back and forth, usually depending on economic circumstances. They come in three general categories; My Daddy Was a Democrat, a sizeable bloc of College Educated Don’t-Give-a-Damns, and Guy Unions.
A lot of people call these undecideds, but in fact, most are Democrats who have to be coaxed over. These are the Democrat voter blocs that Republicans can snatch, but rarely by the brand alone. True, you will see Republican children switching to Dem from time to time, particularly among middle class kids who become liberal during that “valley of the shadow of death” period called college. But as Michael Barone has pointed out, most tend to return to the fold and their original teachings once family, jobs, careers become central to their lives; i.e, they enter the real world. But there is a caveat to Barone’s rule; the private versus public job sector. As you know, the Obamaistas and the Democrats are encouraging more and more graduates to forego the dollar chase and enter “public service” after college, where, not unlike the welfare contract, they will have them hooked, and they can be relied on to vote the buttered, union side of their bread the remainder of their lives. The hours are sweet, no real work is required, there will always be someone else to blame, you can’t be fired and the benefits are fan-damn-tastic. Oh, occasionally, you may have to drop the porn site and go try to cap a well in the Gulf…but the taxpayers or BP will always have your back, so don’t sweat it.
But more than economics, and what really splits GOP from Dem youth, whether from a whole or divided family, are the moral teachings they get as children, even if only by a mother alone. Kids who were raised by Don’t-Give-A-Damn parents have hard enough time of it, but if by a DGD mother alone (who is as faithful to the Democrat Party as Charlie Rangel’s district is) it is very difficult for them to ever find any port in a storm when they need it, for one, because they never knew what one looked like in the first place. There is no exit in their valley of the shadow of death. The vast majority of these tend to be Democrats-for-Life, Unsaved. The only possible chance they have for redemption, and beyond our ability to catalyze, is to want something bad enough…a girl, a career…then look themselves in the mirror and learn that the only impediment to having it is themselves.
(At this point I could spend several paragraphs…but I won’t…as to why being born a suburban Republican can also make Jack a very dull boy, and then work my way on over as to why Billy Sunday, for instance, would be a far better missionary to bring souls over to our side than say, Gov Bob McDonnell, nice guy that he is. He’d done just about everything he preached against. It just seems common sense to me that in order to represent any area filled with sewers and dark alleys (per St Augustine), it helps if you’ve actually been down in one. So I’m a big believer in the temporary “valley of the shadow of death” trek toward wisdom…although neither of my parents ever knew I’d been there…or so I thought at the time.)
Saying “My-daddy-was-a-Democrat” is not quite the same as saying “My daddy was a steelworker, teamster or cop”. But almost. It can also be rural, but similarities in all of them abound. NC-01 is 79% Democrat, 50% black, but only a PVI of +9 despite their white congressman having received 70% of the vote in ’08 (Obama only got 62%). That tells us something. Like a lot of rural counties, that district is old Southern Baptist (black and white) and everyone’s mother and/or daddy was a Baptist and a Democrat, with no reason (yet) to change. At one time that was the basic demographic of the entire south, especially when the only potential Republican voters were African-American. Didn’t know that, huh? In those days, if you were white and college educated you still couldn’t a decent job if you were a Republican…unless you had played for Bear Bryant. Many forget that Martin Luther King was a Republican. Still, it’s not hard to understand how/why those black votes were turned into Captive Democrats so easily, thanks to the Great Society, and an unwillingness by the GOP to connect dots and do some real soul-searching as far back as the mid-1960s (as to why blacks were so easily conceded back to the Dems when they were their natural constituency.) The Dem’s finessed their shorts off, and they’re still standing around pretty well naked.
But by and large the white populations of those counties in NC-01 cannot be relied to vote a straight Democrat ticket, hence the low PVI rating. (I picked this district as an example, because last year a small city there, Kinston, voted to remove party affiliations from the ballots in local elections (e.g. mayor). The Department of Justice overruled them, on the basis that, in this city of 23,000, 2/3rds of the voters black, black people needed to know which candidates were Democrat, (i.e., which way to vote) when in all likelihood most of the Democrat candidates would be white. Interesting, huh? Plantation politics. Without color all you have is the DEM on the ballot. It’s a shame they didn’t appeal, they’d have won. Next time, maybe.)
Bottom line, in NC-01, the Democrats have 50% of the vote locked up in virtually any election…but only if the blacks bother to vote, i.e, if they can get them to the polls, which it seems often they don’t. (2008 was an understandable exception.) Even in rural areas they need GOTV, and even for Dems that takes money. In rural counties they don’t have armies of union buses, and paid escorts to bring these folks in. Often there can be a half mile between houses rather than just pulling to a corner and loading up the whole neighborhood. And I’ve found rural people of all races just to be a little more independent thinking (another thing Dems don’t like). If they don’t want to go vote they won’t go vote, and in strong Dem districts where voting in secret isn’t as easy as one might that, that stay-at-home vote is a GOP vote. Also, rural folks in general have a different viewpoint about their congressmen…they look down their noses at them, as someone who needs them more than the other way around. (Both Dems and GOP don’t like this. But I do.) Hint: Rural folk are born Tea Partiers, through and through….black and white. Just find the wedge(s).
These rural areas are also not job-friendly. Private sector jobs, at least. Since the Great Society programs of the 60s, the idea was to bring jobs to these regions through federal programs via NGO’s which are really public sector jobs, although they may be counted by the Dept of Labor as private. In the cities you had a variety of community action programs, while out there in the hinterlands there were all kinds of rural programs and services, e.g, the Appalachian Regional Commission spawned hundreds and extended so far beyond the Appalachians I believe Democrat counties in Texas got some of that money. The hook: for every $100 dollars spent on a service or direct welfare, $30 goes to the end user, and $50 or so go to local administrators of those monies (the other $20 split by Washington an Raleigh, as a kind of referral fee; the house man thanks you.) That’s where all those Volvos and Beamers come from. So, you can see how the politics of jobs works in this system, since, every time a Republican in Congress wants to trim the budget those jobs become at risk, from Raleigh to downtown Kinston, and it always trickles down to the threat to the end users, “If they cut the budget, i lose my job and you lose your service or benefit.” Simplest math in the world.
It seems Republicans for one reason or another never knew how to play on a field thus defined, at least and keep with old fashioned conservative ideal, even though there is not a single program out there that cannot be cut in half while delivering up a better product. This has been the case for over 30 years, and they have always been vote-related. All programs, no matter how well-intentioned, or well-designed, or even well-initiated, always hemorrhage money within a single bureaucratic “generation”, 15 years. That’s a law. ACORN is but the worst, and most criminal example. Inasmuch as most programs the past 30 years were designed specifically with the intent, as described above, to provide public-sector NGO jobs and buy captive votes, (otherwise serving no real public purpose) the speed of the hemorrhage is tripled. Paraphrasing a line from a very funny observer of human foibles, Louis CK, the Dem’s know best how quickly they can make constituents feel “they are entitled to something they never knew existed 10 minutes ago.” (my words). Think about it, all our children are conditioned this way today. They are being culturally prepared to be captives of the Democrats.
Most rural county seats aren’t naturally equipped for more than a few jobs requiring college or professional degrees anyway; a druggist, a few lawyers, dentists, couple of bankers, doctors, accountants, teachers? Contrived jobs in a region are usually associated with buying votes. Look for it. It was always supposed to work that the excess talent in a town follow the jobs….only the private sector job was supposed to be the job of first resort, not last. The Dems reversed that with these programs.
This sort of analysis can be reduced to a kind of equation, by the way, and I suspect Paul Ryan has already something like it in one of his playbooks. There are also other formulas. In the 90’s we called one the pursuit of “charitable self-interest” model, whereby companies and entrepreneurs could locate a part of their business in depressed areas, still profitable (rather then charitable grant) but less than normal or optimum return. But in East Kentucky it was the UMWA that ran off the risk takers, in the cities (Cincinnati, Indianapolis), community action groups who wanted to godfather every business in the area, and take too big a cut (just like the mafia) making the project unfeasible. In Dem-controlled rural areas similar parties often play that same role, wardens and gatekeepers. Going back to Jack Kemp, then to Newt, the GOP has always wanted to get “enterprise zones” and turn those into large GOP sponsored federal projects when all that was ever required was to run the gangsters out of the counties, then let nature takes its course. It was the “running out” part the GOP shied away from. The Keynesian model of having the principal employee in a location being “federal money” have turned all those areas into secure Democrat enclaves. While it isn’t always practical to simply shut programs down, (Bush was working with faith-based groups to replace the politically-based ones, ostensibly with better services and at less cost) the weakness and exposure of the Democrats is that law of bureaucratic generations, for even Prof Davidson’s third year Business Class at NC State could revamp those programs at half the cost and with better services….all driven by people with real roots in the community.
To the inner cities, the Captive Voters, Black and Hispanic enclaves
This is bigger than you think.
Beyond economic growth, the only other way to sway a Democrat voter to the other side is by appealing to more deeply held concerns. Bill Clinton has the distinction of turning an entire district from Democrat to Republican in 1994 when Ron Lewis, a Republican and baptist minister, replaced a fabulous old Democrat, William Natcher…who I knew and admired…in KY-02. And that reason was religion, or more specifically, irreligion…in the White House. So it can happen. And how Ron did it bears studying. He didn’t just win, he changed the voter registration of a staid, relatively immobile my-daddy-was-a-Democrat district starting with one issue…morality…and this was some years before Monica Lewinsky. People simply were embarrassed at being called Democrats any longer. Do you think Ron Lewis did that on his own, or did he have local (preacher) help? And did he had to pay them a single nickle?
In the urban areas, many of you have no doubt asked, how can so many God-fearing people, Catholic and Protestant, simply fall in line behind baby-killers and atheists? Short answer, because most of us have never been there to know those choices it up close. We’ve always had choices they never had. Those people know what Russian parents knew for 75 years, Iranian parents for 30, or perhaps most aptly, Palestinians today, who accept rice by the teaspoon from benefactors and then are asked for not only gratitude, but their sons, never knowing that their misery is brought onto them by these same sons of perdition with the spoons in their hands. They live in places where they begin losing their sons to the street at 12 or 13, and their daughters at 14, so begin gathering in grandchildren at 15. The tug of war that goes on inside these people is not only painful to contemplate, it is one of the meanest things in modern times that one group of so-called civilized people has ever done to another group. Uhuru! Freedom! Liberte! their souls may cry…but first feed the babies, and there is that miserable Simon Legree, every month, with the check in his hand to seal their captivity. What to do? We can’t begin to understand “cope” until we can appreciate what these millions of moral black and Latina women (and men) must go through just to get through a single week. Clearly, as many a trauma ER doctor knows, many don’t make it.
So, other than the mobility of rural areas, which are as often as not run by “white god” liberal Democrats (a term black civil rights activiists called them in the 60s), there is a lot of overlap with the inner city black neighborhoods, who are truly Captive Voters, where there is virtually no mobility. Virtually all the jobs are in the district, and those are passed out by the Party and community organizations as favors, so much candy, or carrots, and which almost never result in anything so fine as promotions out of the neighborhood, into a house in a better neighborhood. Crime, school drop-outs, gangs, drugs, teen pregnancy…with some talk of a marriage license…these are not just snapshots of this culture, they are carefully cultivated gardens, under the keen and watchful eye of a chain of command that runs all the way up into the Democrat Party penthouse. Of course they want to stem crime, but only crime that gets out of hand. Ronin crime. They want to keep drugs down, but only rogue dealers that outrage their constituents and cause them to take to the streets. And people actually have to get “their” permission to hold a street march protesting these things …they cultivate in their garden. They want the kids educated, but only if they have the exclusive right to tap them out, like a Beta club ceremony, to decide who will go onto further schooling…with all the expected paybacks and debts of gratitude. And of course they want more jobs…but only jobs they can pass out, with their seal of approval. The Democrat Party, say Charlie Rangel, we can name several, they don’t have to get “a cut” of the action going on in these districts. Why dirty their hands? Their profit IS this mass of humanity they own, app 700,000 strong, who can always be relied upon to show up and vote however they are told. It’s their votes, not the corruption, that has made millionaires of the plantation masters.
So, with only cultural and religious differences in emphasis between the urban black neighborhoods and the old Latino (Mexican) neighborhoods of east L.A, or the Puerto Rican neighborhoods in New York, these make up the predominant Captive Voting Blocs of the Democrats. In every one of them, including the gerrymandered districts that make up much of the territory controlled by the Congressional Black Caucus, these contain the same chain of command running up to the top of the Democrat Party, (outlined above) including the standards by which crime, drugs, education, jobs are all kept in check and within the authority of party bosses to control.
The Democrat Voter Delivery System Rule: If on election day the only people who vote are those who get out of the bed in the morning and think to themselves, “I think I’ll go vote today.”, the GOP would win 60-40 every time. The Dems know this, and is why they are trying every trick in the book…some of them illegal or at least beyond the spirit of a free franchise… (They’re trying to make “illegal” legal, also see Jennifer Brunner in Ohio, the Secretary of State Project, and that insane senator from Minnesota.) by stacking voter roles with people on the government payroll (alongside the dole). This is why bringing people into the public sector is so important to them. (BTW, Their 2010-2011 target is all these laid off white, small-business sector workers who immediately go on Unemployment for the first time. Watch for it, they will try to nab half of those…as I’ll talk about in Part III of this report.)
The problem the Dem’s have is so much of their vote is a two-part delivery system, i.e., a coerced voter who still must be physically delivered to the polling station. This is not only costly, but at some strange times, unreliable and inefficient. ’08 was different because people couldn’t wait to go vote. That will probably not be repeated in ’10 or ’12. Sometimes the volunteers just don’t show up. (Never give them that pint until the polls close, not before they open.) GOTV means something different to Dems than it does to conservatives and the GOP. They have already hit the ground running with OFA and ACORN (see ladyimpactohio’s recent articles on RedState, and watch for more), but we’re not yet sure who those volunteers are; paid or unpaid, college kids, unions, state employees/teachers taking a day of leave? On the other hand our GOTV is as clean as a Henry .50 cal. and as pure as grain alcohol. (We favor uniform voter registration, but by state compact, not federal mandate, which in one fell swoop could nullify the entire Secretary of State Project. It should be directed at making voting as simple and as cheater-clean as possible, so even Philadelphia or Jennifer Brunner can’t skirt it.)
But as I said, in the inner city very few people get out of bed on election day and say “I think I’ll go vote.” Not one in a 1000 do that. Somebody has to come get them. Enter Part Two of this equation, the Dem version of GOTV, which in various parts of the country had fallen on the Unions, AFL-CIO girlie men hiring out their rank and file to round these folks up, SEIU, ACORN, and now OFA. Ladyimpactohio continues to watch how OFA operates in Ohio, a very important state, and things we need to know is who it is “volunteering” and for how much? This is a gargantuan logistics problem in these districts (which Bill Clinton was a genius at pulling off compared to these current yokels), requiring dispatchers, available vans/buses, and everyone showing up on time at their designated spot (which is why we want to know if students are volunteering, with their vaunted attention difficulties.) Again, remember, the way many people vote Republican in these districts is by calling in sick (if part of the delivery system) and by not showing up on the curb when the van honks its horn. I see a lot of wiggle room here, and yes, as Art in Alaska already mentioned in my last post, I totally support “honestly” suppressing any vote when that vote is otherwise cast with a gun to the voter’s head. In the final analysis, it will not be us who decides that, but the individual voter. We will only provide the moral support, the wedge. Just find the ammo.
On several levels, there are those same key markers we’ve mentioned above, morality, self-respect, a deep private desire to break free (Uhuru!), a better future for children, which all these districts share. Keeping in mind that we don’t have any plan for turning the Democrats out in these districts, we do believe enough of these markers can subtly be re-injected into the districts, in interesting ways, by various delivery systems, some laid out below, that can walk back some of those numbers and make the Dems feel less secure.
Unions, Mobile and Unsaved
As an annoyance to girlie-men like Richard Trumka, we like to distinguish between Guy Unions and Skirt Unions, saying stuff like “there are now more skirts in the AFL-CIO than the NEA…among the leaders, at least.” I know a lot of bars I can start a fight that way. Bernie I think knows more. SEIU has a lot of thugs, but it is still essentially a skirt union, and communist to the core. And for you lefties listening in, we use “women” here as Mohawks used it, against tribes who had lost their manhood, so don’t flunk your Native American credentials by turning this into an anti-woman comment, especially since the GOP have many a “Woman” (and a fine bunch of lookers, if I may be so bold, as I scan the November horizon) but Democrats and their unions, well, are women. Get it?
You all know this: The American labor force, from the beginning was unrepentantly pro-America, which always annoyed world labor organizations, who were all communist. These were Reagan’s Democrats, and while their numbers have diminished over the years, they are still a powerful force inside the Guy Unions. I’d like to get them back. The rank and file have always been mobile, and their reason has always been a love of America, a belief in “the system” and religious faith. It is also because they have no intention for their children to go down into that mine, or drive that truck, or stoke that furnace as they have done. (Democrats like to immobilize their constituents so prefer third generation steel workers if they can get them.) In their souls they are invested in a system, our system, that allows merit to rise to the top. It was one of the promises that brought their grandfather to these shores in the first place, and both he and America delivered. It’s part of their belief system. I have known a lot of coal miners in my day. But I also know a lot of teamsters, from Cincinnati, Chicago, Providence, the Carolinas. One of Bernie’s hosts in South Boston is a teamster from the auld sod, who you heard from during the Scott Brown campaign. Everyone is a fire-breathing Democrat and would never so much as profane a hair of their father’s memory by putting an R in front of their name at the registry. But by God, they will vote for them. And have.
Skirt unions, on the other hand are communist. And they were always there (only less visibly) since FDR. They are federal and state employees, and they are teachers. In public schools K-12 (public colleges are solidly Left), for instance, there is still a fairly even split between leftists and God-fearing pro-American teachers, but only in most rural and suburban districts. Inner city districts seem to reflect the leftward leanings of the political leadership, where, like Hollywood, conservatives and Christians alike have to go dark in order to keep their jobs. (We believe actions such as school teachers teaching kids the “Umm, umm, umm” song in Virginia, or the American flag issue in California during Cinco de Mayo, and the administrators’ backing these unlawful acts, call for a swifter and more stern response than what was passed out, but we’ll talk about that in a separate post.)
I won’t spend any time with the unsaved here, except to say they are unsaved. But that is not to say they are not unsaveable, if in the public sector…but only if we first fire them…at least about half of them, where perhaps, by having to struggle in the private sector they can again find their way. (In public schools and other sectors we have our ideas as to how this can best be done, simply by getting rid of some really bad curriculum. But once again, this is not the place.) Greece, California, Massachusetts are all shedding light on the great damage these people can do, just by “being there on the job”, for by weight of numbers alone they can now carry an election that secures and broadens their income rights above all others…until death do us all part, it seems. This is the fight Gov Christie is having in New Jersey now, trying to stop the march of parasites who are killing their host, and indifferent (and stupid) to the knowledge that in doing so, they will be killing themselves. They have to be reduced in number. Period.
We’re taking suggestions every day, but have a few ideas already prepared and have embedded them throughout this article. Remember, it has to be cheap, and at least in Philadelphia, extra sneaky, so as not to get whacked. I’ve actually hinted a few here. Whispers. A flier under the door. Remember, to half the people you’re saying something they already know and believe. All you’re saying is “I’m NOT from the government, and I’ve come to help you…get out.” Keep it up. Like the messages Churchill sent across the channel to the French, via the Maquis, and America sent through Radio Free Europe (now’s there an idea!), you’re saying we know where you are and we’re coming to pull you out. Hope. A candidate can stand on a stage and talk about any of a number of “moral messages” until he’s blue in the face…but in an 80-20, 90-10 district, I can guarantee a Baptist preacher would do better in a brothel…in Tijuana, than a Republican in any public hall in New York’s 15th District. Christ faced similar audiences, and they didn’t pay any attention either. Then they hung Him. So don’t get too cute. But that is to not to say those messages can’t be delivered. Ron Lewis used a brotherhood of preachers, then found ways to simply reinforce it. There is not an inner city district that does not have dozens, even hundreds, of citizen’s groups who want better schools, “cleaner” streets, less crime. A clever commercial on television shows them mapping out goals on brick one block at a time. For twenty years, starting with inner city moms in Milwaukee, I think, the school voucher program has been shunned in cities who both want it and need it most. The GOP pushes this but has been somewhat content in their failures in Congress and state legislatures, while the answer always lay in the streets. Community action. Go there, they are waiting.
First of all, this is not an overnight operation, nor is it a “campaign season only” tactic. Walking those numbers back requires (re)embedding into certain groups certain signals, probably signals they’d heard before, a long, long time ago, maybe even as children, but which still resonate and then linking them to something yet to come. That’s the hope part. The idea is to lead them to an answer that has always been there, which, like quitting smoking, every day you know you’ll have to confront. Not all can, not all will, but those who do will save their lives. In politics, as we saw with the Welfare Reform Act of 1996, there can be a snowball effect.
It is our (heartfelt) belief that those “captured” voters in the Democrat party, “the client sector”…maybe as many as 50% of them…like the smoker, knows they are part of a thing they shouldn’t be a part of, and there are things they will swap for a change. A better chance for their kids is right on top. But just a little self-respect as well. Food stamps, welfare, AFDC (now that it’s back), were always supposed to be thing just to get them over this hump. Many bear deep hidden resentments, and embarrassment, about their relationship with their benefactors and gatekeepers.
Part of the plantation model is to keep them removed from people who work in the private sector. Real jobs…with a chance to move up…and move out. No one has ever explained to them that for every dollar they get in some sort of benefit, someone else, with a nice car and who drives home to the suburbs every night, gets three, just in order to dole out that dollar. No one has explained to them the different math involved between the private and public sectors, for in their world, all jobs usually means work with some level of government, or with some state-sponsored NGO, such as ACORN. Still, they understand work, and how much better it is to get a paycheck than a relief check.
What they don’t understand is the flim-flam, or that they’re the pigeons. We need to find ways to tell them.
Several GOP attempts have been made to break this cartel inside the inner city, but have always been rebuffed by the Democrats in Congress. I was hired to try two projects on behalf of rich liberals in Cincinnati, and when they found out all the dues, tolls and payoffs they had to make to local community action groups (the shakedown), who control those neighborhoods like mobsters, in order to turn an old warehouse into a manufacturing operation, they threw up their hands, not so much in disgust as not wanting to have to confront the thinness of their own social beliefs. It didn’t make them less liberal, it was simply another thing that did not fit into their world view, so they discarded it, and like Miracle Max in Princess Bride, just threw their hands over their ears, “I can’t hear you, I can’t hear you” when I tried to explain why inner city black people are poor and have to stay poor unless you break a few eggs.
You can see the relative risks in trying to walk back Democrat numbers in a rural area of North Carolina versus say, Cleveland or Philadelphia. I mean physical risks. The American inner cities are much like Iran, ruled by totalitarians, and while they’d all like to flee or see the ugliness around them flee, they also know they are trapped. They must rely of outside agencies to accelerate their own liberation, just as the Iranian people are waiting not for a signal, but real action from the US to bring about their freedom. Putting Rangel in jail would be a nice, but as a part of the ruling clique, that’s not likely to happen.
So you can see, our own range of possibilities (for now) are broader in Guy unions, colleges and rural Democrat region, even solidly white Liberal enclaves, such as Pelosi’s CA-08, inasmuch as we can do a lot without being shot at, or beaten with a club. There are many things we can do to annoy Democrats….and let folks know there can be a better life waiting just outside the grasp of the Democrats. The schools and churches (some of them, not all) are still prime bases for sending out signals of hope.
The idea is to either attach those signals of hope to the Republican Party, or at least detach them from the Democrats. Even if only God can hold out hope…
…at least we can make that D stand for Despair.
(Part III in a few days)