Will "Events" Drive the 2010 Election Season?- B Chumm

Note: Last night I sent Bernard Chumm a copy of my latest situation analysis, and how we plan to spend our summer, in which, in the closing paragraphs, I included a silly cavalier comment “…short of England breaking off diplomatic relations with the US for our mistreatment of British nationals (BP)…” He called me after midnight and said “That could be it.” “What”, I asked? His answer was emailed to me this AM and is included here, unedited.”– VB

The question: What is the Chicago way when you find yourself surrounded, with all sides closing in simultaneously?

Bushmills and I are in agreement that long term there would an eventual clash between the Congress and Obama, but first they had to dispatch those pesky conservative Teabaggers this November. We also agree that come showdown time, Obama would win.

Things have changed. Let’s say it is now advantage-Congress.

A lot. First, Obama, with the help of Pelosi and Reid, asked Congress to lay it all on the line with Health Care. Although now law, that’s not really working out all that well. Voter anger is on the upswing, not decreasing. And the chance for statewide rebellions and a Supreme Court reversal are still iffy at best. It will be hot topic in the campaign.

But rather than quell this rising anger, it has been exacerbated by Obama taking the wrong side of what seems to be a very popular national issue, illegal immigration. Even super-liberal states such as Massachusetts are taking up the issue of clamping down on illegals. And all but the biggest idiot Leftwinger in Portland realizes that demagoging the “racial profiling” aspect of Arizona’s law is gaining no new adherents, merely providing a salve for the chattering choirs, while genuinely angering some of the Left for assuming they were fools, inasmuch as the federal law and California even have almost identical laws already on the books. Mainstream liberals are insulted.

The problem is, the White House position on AZ Bill 1070 has forced a lot of Members to have to take a position, which will come up again and again once the campaigns kick off, as to whose side they’re on. Just like last summer’s hot, hot town halls, only with their jobs on the line this time, they will not be able to dodge these issues.

And Obama and Co seem to think they can sue everything back to Square One, which is childlike in its naivete. Or Madelaine Albright stupid. Even liberals don’t like lawyers, government lawyers at least. The absurdity of this is playing out in the Gulf now, where engineers and technical experts are being sued, even threatened with jail, at the same time, expected to pour their life’s blood into bailing out, not themselves, not their employers, not Gulf residents, not even the eco-system, but this Administration.

People are watching and taking notes, and many in Congress in particular, are beginning to question the competence of this administration, not just in governing, which Congress probably cared about as little as Team Obama until they saw it carried to levels that exceeded even their Fannie Mac franchisees, but also in politics. This is perhaps why the Sestak/Romanoff Take-a-Dive-for-Jobs scandals may have more legs than first thought.

For SEIU, and all the other unions, including the teachers, the real lesson learned from the Sestak fiasco was that an Obama favorable shout-out is a kiss of death for a candidate, and no real solace for unions supporting those candidates. Both the candidates and the unions have their own interests in this electoral fight, and Obama seems to put a hex on one, while being indifferent and disloyal to the other. Having displayed no real loyalty to anyone outside his circle the past 17 months, it may be very hard for him to start faking it now, with the public, Congress or the union alliance. Even the Greens are beginning to whisper.

And speaking of whispers, there is actual talk about impeachment. Is “criminal incompetence” a high crime? It is if 90 Democrats in the House say it is.

So, feeling yourself encircled, what do you do…if 1) you’re way out of your depth and it’s beginning to be increasingly apparent, even to you, and 2) you’re from Chicago?

The Gulf Oil spill may have given us a peek as to what might happen, if say, sparks began to fly on the Korean peninsula, or over Iran, or, as Vassar suggested, England recalls her ambassador. Answer: You don’t fight it, you don’t solve it, you milk it. Look for this.

And also look very closely for fingerprints. Very closely.