Illinois Republican [mc_name name=’Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’K000360′ ] is the most vulnerable of all incumbent Republicans anywhere in the country. All of the political predictors, forecasters, political observers, and race handicappers agree on this and have for some time. Illinois is a blue state and the Democrat party is likely to throw everything they have at making sure congresswoman [mc_name name=’Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)’ chamber=’house’ mcid=’D000622′ ] becomes a United States Senator.
Meanwhile Sen. Kirk has been busy making the Republican Parties base despise him given his recent vote in support of continuing to fund Planned Parenthood even after the release of the undercover videos showing the abortion providers Nazi like practice of selling harvested baby body parts. Others within the rank and file of the Republican Party are still upset with Kirk over his backing of Sen. Dick Durbin in the last election and not fellow Republican state Sen. Jim Oberweis. It was Sen. Kirk who was the author of the amendment in the Senate that sought to revive the Export-Import Bank, it was the bringing up of that amendment that prompted Texas [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] to call [mc_name name=’Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’M000355′ ] a liar on the Senate floor.
Then there are Sen. Kirk’s gaffes of late, from saying [mc_name name=’Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’G000359′ ] is a “bro with no ho”, to the questionable hiring of his campaign of a criminal to be the Senators in home care giver, things haven’t been going good for Mark Kirk.
A few weeks ago a prominent GOP insider Ron Gidwitz was the first to publicly come out and say that Mark Kirk needs to step aside, only to quickly walk that back.
For months the rumors have been from within the inner circles of the Illinois GOP that they have been trying to get Kirk to see the light that he cannot win, especially a general election against the sympathetic and loyal Democrat Duckworth, and let someone else either serve out the rest of the term or run in his place in the election. After Gidwitz’s episode the word became that the insiders and power players would be fine with Kirk going out at the hands of a Duckworth victory.
Something unspecified within the last week or two, sources tell me and others, has changed and that they are ready to either force Mark Kirk out or have found something to offer him to coax him out and that his retirement announcement or announcement saying he won’t seek reelection could come sometime in September, October at the latest(if this happens at all).
If this happens the ILGOP will immediately put congressman Adam Kinzinger up as Kirk’s replacement. While conservatives and Tea Partiers would prefer the likes of former congressman’s Joe Walsh and Bobby Schilling the GOP establishment in Illinois will go with Kinzinger who is a loyalist to Speaker Boehner, is tight on foreign policy matters with Senators [mc_name name=’Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’M000303′ ] and Lindsey Graham(especially when it comes to Syria), and is a major backer of giving amnesty to illegal immigrants.
By running Adam Kinzinger the ILGOP would give themselves a young, TV pretty, Iraq and Afghanistan Air Force veteran who is moderate on the issues and isn’t known for throwing bombs or elbows(expect at conservatives and the Tea Party) to go up against a pro-choice, Iraq war amputee, who has been a darling of the Democrat Party for nearly a decade now.
Kinzinger, who has been a supporter of Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign since February, would easily garner the support, particularly the money, from the US Chamber of Commerce and other establishment republican and crony capitalist groups and Super PACs because of his steadfast support of amnesty, his backing of the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal, and desire to see the Export-Import bank reauthorized. That money and corporatist support would give Kinzinger a chance to make it a competitive race against Duckworth and the support she’ll receive from the likes of Planned Parenthood and Emily’s list, Sen. Dick Durbin, and Boss Michael Madigan.
The Democrats are banking on taking Kirk’s seat in any attempt they have of regaining control of the Senate and the GOP establishment doesn’t exactly want that to happen, which is why they will in all likelihood succeed in getting Kirk to step aside and bring Kinzinger up to bat.
cross posted from USofArn.com