Diary

Trump on Track to Win with 297 Electoral Votes

 

final-winning-map

I have been trying to come up with an unbiased mathematical equation which will give me the best analysis of who will win the 2016 Presidential Election. Polls are worthless. About 128.5 million people voted for President in 2012 and they’re trying to tell me that they can sample 1000 or 2000 people and give me an accurate result?? Seriously?! Furthermore, the election is based on electoral votes, not popular votes. Even if you did an electoral poll, you’d have to sample the correct demographics for each state to come up with an electoral prediction. So like I said – worthless.

After careful thought, I have come up with something I am calling the PBI Effect. The acronym stands for Primaries, Bernie & Independents, the three things that I believe will be instrumental in the outcome of the presidential race. These considerations are explained below:

1.     Voter turn-out in the primaries and an estimate of how many non-Trump Primary voters will vote for Trump in the general election. My percentages range from 40-95%, averaging out at 71% which is less than the 74% quoted here. These are the most committed voters and give us an indication of how other Republicans will vote in the general.

2.    Bernie voters not voting for Clinton in large numbers. Take a look at Bernie’s Facebook page. I’ve been following it for months. They don’t like Crooked Hillary. I’m giving her. 70% of the Bernie vote and I believe that’s a high estimate. A recent September 15th poll showed that only 51% of Sanders supporters plan to vote for Crooked Hillary. Yes, I said polls are worthless but the anti-Hillary sentiment is prevalent all over the place.

3.    Independent voters are voting for Trump in large numbers – Trump has a 41-28% edge over Crooked Hillary.

Using my PBI Equation, I was able to figure out whether Trump or Crooked Hillary wins with the most primary voters come general election time – and how that translates to Republican voters who didn’t vote in the primary as well. Then you add in Trump’s edge with independents as well as other outliers including Trump’s black voter turnout which is currently estimated at 16%. Add to that a third-party vote sitting around 5-11% being siphoned away from Hillary and you have a big win for Trump – barring, of course, mass voter fraud by the Democrats. Trump might even win with even more electoral votes by winning Pennsylvania and Colorado but I put the more questionable and closer states in the Democrat column.

The following percentages are what I think voters will do in the general election.

Trump primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 100%
Rubio primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 90%
Cruz primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 70%
Kasich primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 70%
Bush primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 60%
Carson primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 95%
Paul primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 40%
Huckabee primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 90%
Christie primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 80%
Florina primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 50%
Santorum primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 80%
Graham primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 50%
Other Republican primary voters who will vote for Trump in the general election: 50%

Clinton primary voters who will vote for Clinton in the general election: 100%
Sanders primary voters who will vote for Clinton in the general election: 70%
O’Malley primary voters who will vote for Clinton in the general election: 90%
Other Democrat primary voters who will vote for Clinton in the general election: 50%

Happy voting everyone.

(map above made at: www.270towin.com)