What the latest polls tell us: Romney 285 Electoral College Votes

In poll after poll in the Battleground States during the past two weeks the movement has clearly been in Mitt Romney’s direction.  The RCP Electoral College Map shows Obama with 221 ECV and Romney with 170 ECV with 12 states that have a combined total of 147 ECV rated as Toss Ups.  Based on the most recent polls in those states, Romney is leading 8 of the 12 states for an addition 115 ECV; Obama is leading in only 3 toss up states (Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) with 23 ECV; and Colorado (Rasmussen Reports) with 9 ECV is a tie.

The most recent polls in Arizona (PPP) and Missouri (Rasmussen Reports) have Romney at +7 in each state.  Those two states have slipped away from Obama and should move in the near future to Lean Romney.  Because of problems elsewhere, the Obama campaign will not be able to put the time and resources into these two states, which were won by McCain, to try to make them competitive.  With Arizona and Missouri, Romney’s base is 191 ECV.

Here’s a summary of the latest polls in the other Battleground States where Romney has taken the lead:

Ohio (18 ECV):  +3 (Purple States Strategies) and +2 (Rasmussen Reports)

Florida (29 ECV):  +3 (Purple States Strategies)

North Carolina (15 ECV): +2 (PPP)

Michigan (16 ECV):  + 1 (EPIC-MRA)

Wisconsin (10 ECV):  +3 (Rasmussen Reports)

Iowa (6 ECV):  +1 (Rasmussen Reports)

If (and that’s a big if) Romney carries these 8 states, he would have a total of 285 Electoral College Votes.  The two major warning signs in these results are the Michigan poll, which may be an outlier, and Obama’s continuing lead in polling in the state of Virginia.  If Romney were to lose Michigan as well as Colorado and Virginia, we would have an electoral college tie at 269 each.  Romney would still win, because Republicans control the House of Representatives, but Romney’s margin of error is very small.

On the other hand, we also may very well be headed toward a Romney landslide if these trends hold up, and there is no reason to believe that they won’t.  Romney could very well sweep all 12 of the Battleground States, which would give him a total of 317 Electoral College Votes.  There are also indications that both Pennsylvania (20 ECV) and Oregon (7 ECV) may be in play.  This explains why there is widespread panic in the Democrat Party outside of Team Obama’s inner circle.


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