The Obama campaign has made its first ad buy, which is described in Dan Spencer’s diary. The ad will appear in nine states: PA, OH, FL, VA, NC, CO, NH, IA, and NV. This buy reveals a great deal about Obama’s electoral college strategy:
1. The buy coincides identically with the states that are identified as swing states on the 270toWin Electoral College Map and ignores the Electoral College Map currently projected by RCP which is much more favorable to Obama.
2. Obama concedes all of the states that McCain won in 2008 (including Arizona and Missouri) plus Indiana, giving Romney a base of 191 electoral college votes.
3. The map is wide open, with both Romney and Obama having multiple paths to victory.
4. The Obama campaign believes that it is in trouble in Pennsylvania, which is the key state to an Obama win.
5. If Obama wins Pennsylvania then Romney must either win Florida or expand the map to Michigan and/or Wisconsin or the election is over.
6. In turn, if Romney wins FL, OH, and NC (his 3 most likely states out of the nine), Obama must win PA or the election is over.
7. If Romney wins PA plus OH and NC, Obama would have to win FL or the election is over.
8. Pennsylvania and Florida are therefore the two most important states on this map. If either candidate wins both, he will win the election. Yes, Romney would have more work to do, but if these two fall to Romney the rest of the map will also.