Diary

Advantage Romney: What the latest polls tell us

In the past two weeks, Romney has closed the gap in national polls according to Real Clear Politics.  The average of five national polls taken since April 22 (and leaving off the National Journal’s poll of all of the adult population taken before that date) shows Romney with a 46.8% to 46.2% advantage.

More to the point, the new USAToday/Gallup poll of 12 battleground states has Obama with only a 2% lead (47% to 45%) well within the margin of error.  An analysis of this poll gives the following results:

1.  Arizona and Missouri are considered Red States, unlike the RCP Electoral College map which has them as toss ups.

2.  The 12 battleground states polled include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,  New Mexico, and Nevada (which RCP has as leaning Democrat), as well as the RCP toss up states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

3.  The “persuadable” voters in these states (7% undecided and 24% who could change their minds) are predominantly Republican or Republican-leaning voters.  Obama has only a 40% approval rating among persuadables and Romney is considered by 2 – 1 to be better equipped to handle the economy.

4.  The “gender gap” in this poll is 20 points, far greater than the 12 point gender gap that Obama had over McCain in these same states in 2008, and therefore certain to close in future polls.

5.  This is a poll of registered voters, which typically tilts more towards Obama than a poll of likely voters would.

Conclusion:  Based on polling 6 months out from the election, Romney is clearly positioned to win.   In fact, this could be a Romney landslide