Update 9/30/15/ : CNBC has done a complete 180 degree turn. Not surprising as The Politico story referenced down below indicated at least a couple of the struggling campaigns were not pleased with the lack of details. Now the word is there WILL be an undercard which RNC’s Spicer said probably wouldn’t happen. There will be a 6 pm and an 8 pm debate. National Polls will be used instead of the state specific given out earlier. ( Hmm that’s 2 things changed already)
“To appear in the 8pm debate a candidate must have an average of 3% among these polls. The polls will be averaged and will be rounded up to 3% for any candidate with a standing of 2.5% or higher. Candidates who average below that will be invited to the 6pm debate.”
Wonder what happened? They had at least 2 credible sources. Here’s hoping everyone’s favorite candidate(s) make it up to the three percent mark.
The next debate comes up at the end of this month. Oct. 28th to be precise. And the RNC and CNBC has determined we have had enough time to listen to all the candidates and make up our minds as to who should be left in the field and who should be kicked off the island. In an article that ran Sunday in The Politico we are given all the pertinent information we need to know. First we’re told the RNC doesn’t set up the formal rules but does have pull with the network carrying the debate.
The particulars like who is moderating and what kind of a format will be used have not yet been set up but NBC’s Chuck Todd has made it clear there will be less candidates in the mix. Pay close attention: “You have to be viable. So now we’re in debate three it’s time to show viability and only the viable ones survive,” Todd said during an interview on ESPN radio last week. ”
“You can do it a couple different ways. I don’t believe in setting a set number. I think maybe you come up with ‘oh are you at 5 percent or more in Iowa or New Hampshire’ you can create a sort of floor, no more 4-percenters get in, no more 3-percenters get in.”- Todd
Too me that’s stunning. They haven’t really hashed it all out but they’re looking at creating a floor from data in a couple of states? What happened to South Carolina? What’s so special about Iowa and New Hampshire?
And of course the RNC is in on this. RNC chief strategist Sean Spicer points out in the article he’s been in touch with CNBC and has indicated the early debate among the lower candidates is probably not going to happen.
“I doubt there will be an undercard,” he said. “We’ve got to look and see where we are, it’s six weeks from now … you start getting that undercard soon turns into an interview. We need to see where the race stands in a couple weeks and see what’s best for candidates and the party.”
So, there’s a guy that works for main stream media telling us they’ll pick an arbitrary percentage candidates have to be at but only in certain states. And a guy with the RNC telling us “we” need to see what’s best for the candidates and the party. We who?
I admit the whole thing has been a bit unwieldy, a lot of candidates with many points of view, but to cut out candidates based on a showing in one or two states effectively clears out half our field. Consider that there are margins for error in these polls that are 3 and 4 percent. That not only has a bearing on the individual poll but the average as well. Seems like our candidates know best when its time to take themselves out of the game. A couple of them, for their own reasons, already have
Its not a long article and I encourage you to read it in its entirety. Then go look over the RCP averages and figure out where your candidate stands in Iowa, New Hampshire, or maybe even nationally since this is all still iffy. This one quote attributed to an anonymous advisor suggests quite a lot of why this is being done now: “Insiders in Washington want to limit the debates because they want their two favorites, Bush and Rubio, to take on Donald Trump,” the adviser said.
So that’s it then? It would explain why South Carolina isn’t in the mix. Rubio isn’t polling all the high there right now. What’s the point of us actually watching, eh? Let’s just print up those primary ballots with both names and get this over and done with.
Ah, well. Neither CNBC nor the RNC has finalized this stuff yet. They do have until the end of the month, and promise more info soon. But we can surmise deals are afoot. Yes we need to cut the deck , not sure the dealers are the ones to do the cutting.
PS. The debate after the one on CNBC, will be in November on Fox Business Network. Wondering if we’ll have anybody left by then.
* All emphasis mine.