Diary

2/4-US Senate 2010 Election Projections- DEM 52 GOP 48 *GOP ADD 1*

2010 US Senate projection 2/4/10
I waited patiently for a non-Kirk push poll to come in from Illinois, and the first post-primary poll gives Kirk a 6 pt lead over Giannoulias there. This state is now BARELY GOP Pickup, and I think it will waffle for some time back and forth between leaning red, blue, and undecided. Still, who would’ve thought last January that the Republicans are likely to pick up both Biden and Obama’s old seats?

The announcement of Coats spices things up in Indiana, but without polling data, it is hard to move the scale there. Bayh has $12 million on hand and Coats has to deal with explaining why he retired rather than face Evan in 1998. There’s also that Harriet Miers debacle too.  If however his local popularity and growing voter anger are strong enough, Bayh should start worrying.

Everyone looking at this map is thinking the same thing. We’re THREE SEATS AWAY from taking the Senate.

I bet everyone is also thinking another thing- what will it take to get Rossi, Pataki, and Thompson to just throw their hats in the ring?

Ranking by likelihood of flipping to GOP:

Delaware 99%

North Dakota 99%

Arkansas 90%

Nevada    75%

Pennsylvania 70%

Colorado  66%

Illinois 66% (up from 50/50)

Indiana45% (up from 35%)

New York(G) 25%

California 15% (down from 25% due to dust up between Fiorina and Campbell)

Wisconsin 15%

Washington 10%

Connecticut  5%