Updated yet again with a slew of new polling data. Missouri has seen no new polling data, but the last poll taken courtesy of Rasmussen BEFORE the Scott Heard Round the Electorate had Blunt up significantly. This coupled with the generic congressional ballot trending Republican (per Rasmussen, PPP, NPR, etc) gives him the edge over Carnahan there, breaking the Tie ranking.
Florida is clearly trending heavily to the GOP, with either Crist or Rubio cruising for a win in November.
Arkansas is the big story here- it is now ranked up with North Dakota and Delaware as SOLID GOP pickups.
Polls to look for this week- California, Indiana, and post-primary polls out of Illinois.
Focusing on post-primary polling out of the Land of Lincoln, IF Kirk wins the GOP primary (which is likely), we will see if the cons and indies consolidate behind him as they did with Scott Brown. If a moderate Republican who has been scorned for supporting Cap and Trade can still hold the Republican-Independent coalition, Illinois may tilt in our favor.
Ranking by likelihood of flipping to GOP:
North Dakota 99%
New York(G) 25% (up to 65% with Pataki)
California 25% (up to 40% with Campbell)
Wisconsin 15% (up to 50% with Tommy Boy)
Washington 10% (up to 40% with Rossi)
Maryland, Hawaii, New York (S), Oregon, Vermont, Oregon- 1%