Diary

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/22:McCAIN 269 OBAMA 269

Despite a strong week of polling for Obama, McCain has managed to flip his first Kerry04 state in the GE- New Hampshire, which, with the addition of a University of New Hampshire poll, swings ever so slightly into the Republican’s camp. This of course does not take away from Obamas strong week in the national polls, and his gains in Virginia. Obama has polled well in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Carolina, New Mexico, and California a bit stronger. Of course how much of this is residue from a rough economic week and how much is the subsiding of the McCain convention bounce has yet to be seen.

Mason Dixon will be releasing daily polls, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls morning, noon, and evening daily for much of the remainder of the cycle. SurveyUSA will also be joining in the daily poll barrage, promising over a dozen new state poll results this week.STATE OF THE STATES PER CANDIDATE (weakest to strongest):MCCAIN:NH +0.5, VA +2, NV +2, OH +3, FL +3.75, IN +4, NC +4.5, MO +4.75, WV +7.5, MT +10, AZ +11, ND +12, AR +13, MS +14, SC +14, LA +15, GA +15, TX +15, SD +16.5, KY +18.5, AK +20, TN +23, NE +24, AL +25, KS +27, OK +30, WY +30, UT +37.5, ID +40.OBAMA:WI +2.5, PA +2.5, CO +2.5, MN +3.5, MI +3.75, WA +5, NJ +6, OR +6.5, NM +8, IA +8, ME +8, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, CT +13, MA +13.5, MD +14, IL +15, CA +15, RI +21.5, VT +21.5, HI +31, DC +60.

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 24 2008