Diary

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/17: McCain 274 Obama 264

HUGE polling dump today by ARG…and despite the weird teaser yesterday, mostly good news for McCain. Still, they are weighed on accuracy, and ARG barely ranks above ZogbyInteractive.New York has drifted back to a reasonable margin for Obama,though it remains closer than it has been polling all year.PPP’s poll for Viriginia is worrisome- Virginia is a lot closer than many of us on the right would like to think it is, currently just McCAIN+2.5.Some slightly better news is the results out of Colorado- the state remains weak Republican, slightly boosted by ARG.

Now some of the bad news, and this is a bit of a personal aside- I think this may be McCain’s peak in the state-by-state polls, judging on the massive switch back to Obama thanks to the poor economic news, for perhaps the rest of the election cycle. If McCain can’t break ahead in the economic debate, and effectively tie or beat Obama in the debates, its all downhill for JSM.

Over the whole cycle, a whole bunch of states have been categorized as “tossups”.Well, its clear now what is really up for grabs-Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania….. and to a lesser extent Ohio, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon.These states may flip back and forth in the last 7 weeks- but dont expect any more surprises.

MCCAIN/OBAMA STATES (weakest to strongest)MCCAIN:CO +1, NV +2.3, VA +2.5, OH +3.75, FL +5, MO +5, IN +5.5, WV +7.5, NC +8. MT +10, ND +10, AZ +11, AR +13, SC +13, MS +14, GA +15, LA +15, TX +15, SD +17, KY +18.5, NE +19. AL +20.5, AK +24.5, TN +25, KS +27. WY +30, OK +32, UT +37.5, ID +40OBAMA:MI +1.5, PA +2, MN +2.5, WI +3, NM +3, NH +3, WA +3.75, NJ +5, OR +5.5, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, IA +13, MD +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, CA +15, VT +19, RI +21.5, HI +31, DC+60

NEXT UPDATE- SEPTEMBER 19TH 2008