If you have followed my projections, or those of Nate Silvers @ FiveThirtyEight.com, you will have noticed a marked shift in the campaign.
I have been reluctant to say this election has now shifted to the Republicans’ to lose or win, mainly because much of the McCain surge could be the convention bounce.
However, with the Star-Tribune poll, the momentum has shifted.
For the first time in the general election season, a reliable pollster indicates McCain TIED in a Blue-swing state. Further, the pollster is, shall we say, a bit biased (they dont nickname it the “Red Star” tribune for nothing), and the poll oversamples Democrats- which if readjusted for party ID gives McCain the lead in a state even Reagan couldnt win in 1984.
This, coupled with McCains surge in Washington and Wisconsin, confirms that we have taken the fight to the Democrats turf. We still need to be weary of what happens in Virginia. Florida is pulling away for us, as is the Mountain West.Colorado needs work.But now the Democrats are barely (and I mean barely) leading Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire- a bloc consisting of 73 electoral votes. We win any 2 of those states, we needn’t worry about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa or Nevada.
The dynamic has shifted, as the media and the Democrats have erred in unleashing their wrath on the VP instead of McCain. Palin has locked up Montana, the Dakotas, Alaska, the Carolinas, Missouri, and Georgia- all states Obama foolishly pissed away fortunes in.
Defend Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia.
Its a far shorter list than Obama has to worry about…