First Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama…NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle this week.Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia and Ohio.Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit…as has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain’s leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.
McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.
Polling data should be steady now through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. We should also see biweekly releases from Public Policy and perhaps daily releases from SurveyUSA.States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:
MCCAIN:NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39OBAMA:NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60
FROM HERE ON OUT, I WILL UPDATE THE PROJECTION EVERY MONDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY HERE. ADDITIONAL IN-BETWEEN POLLING POSTS AND UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE (ALONG WITH PROJECTIONS) AT MY BLOG, www.the1andonlyfinn.blogspot.com.