It was bound to happen, and we now have the polling data to back it up:McCain has received a modest bounce from the convention.
The first indicator of this was a release from CNN last week, around Labor Day, showing Obama’s lead had narrowed to just 1 point, 49-48 (here).Soon after, CBS news released this one on Thursday, indicating in their polling that the race was dead even.
Mind you, these were all taken BEFORE the nights of Palin and McCains speeches.
Yesterday, Rasmussen and Gallup began trending towards a tie.Democrat John Zogby released his latest internet poll, giving McCain the first post-convention lead, and one where he garnered within striking distance of the hallowed 50% mark.
Today, Scott Rasmussen indicated a tie- 48-48 w/leaners, in the daily tracking poll of Likely Voters.
Gallup chimes in, showing McCain ahead by 3 amongst registered voters in it’s daily tracking poll.
Lastly, we have todays USAToday/Gallup poll of registered and likely voters.Amongst registered voters, McCain beats Obama 50-46. But amongst likely voters, McCain has CRACKED 50%, now holding a 10-pt lead.
If the Gallup and Rasmussen trends continue to show a bounce through Wednesday, we could expect to see McCain ahead roughly by 4-5 points in the RCP average @ RealClearPolitics.com. If he manages to hold an average of 49.5% in the national vote in the weeks FOLLOWING the bounce, McCain will become the likely winner, with Obama playing roll as underdog.