Diary

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/22-McCain 274 Obama 264

McCain’s surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions…Obama’s margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000’s Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there.McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states-New Hampshire is on the verge of a virtual tie- Obama now leads with just a 1.2 pt margin- it had been 11pts in late June.Pennsylvania, with Rasmussen’s latest polls, has drifted into “weak Democrat”. Still enough of a margin for Obama to have a good cushion, but if it falls any more things could get exciting in the Keystone State.

Polling out of New Mexico shrinks Obama’s lead there as well.

North Carolina has been an oddball state for much of the year in polling. While it has never given Obama a lead, the state has only given McCain a 2-6pt lead all year. It drifts back to weak McCain thanks to the recent InsiderAdvantage poll.

Next week is the Democratic Convention. Expect to see polling throughout the week in:New HampshireOhioMichiganColoradoNew MexicoPennsylvaniaFloridaNevadaVirginiaIowaWisconsinOregonand perhaps a few pointless-to-poll states, like Kentucky, Nebraska, or California.