Let me start off on a tangent and just say- this has been an awesome summer for movies. Iron Man, WALL*E, The Dark Knight…I’ve yet to see a movie that disappointed this year. Particularly Nolan’s Knight, which I had the pleasure of seeing on IMAX…(and might I add theres no hype behind Ledgers performance as the Joker…he’s perhaps the most believable psychopath-villian on the screen in years)… now onto good news in the projection…
As the national race continues to tighten (and the full effects of Obama’s World Tour ’08 on public opinion are so far unclear), several states have moved into McCains direction quite heavily. While McCain’s lead in NC waxes and wanes more than an extreme dieters waistline, and Nevada has drifted to a tossup, McCain has regained the lead in Virginia, expanded his existing one in Georgia, and has gained perhaps the most crucial state- Ohio. Rasmussen’s latest poll is enough to push the 30 day average into McCain’s favor by +1.5. Meanwhile, the Obama-favoring swing states of Michigan and New Hampshire have become far more competitive. Recent polling out of both states has shrunk Obamas leads- in Michigan from +7 to +4.5 and in New Hampshire from +10 to just +3.5.
At this point, McCain needs to simply hold onto his recent gains, push and steal back Nevada, and flip (in order of likelihood) Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Oregon.