Rundown: Control of the Senate part 4 (UPDATE)



Incumbent Mark Udall is no longer safe as expected. All polls show him running under 50 against potential challengers. My particular candidate of endorsement is state Senator Owen Hill which I’ve done so already. Also running is 2010 nominee Ken Buck. With less than a year out and BO’s job approval not seeing any break, I’d say there’s a very good chance the CO GOP can reverse all their losses of the past decade including the state Legislature and state Governorship. Lean D


I doubt Jim Risch has anything to worry about in a state where the Democrat Party is irrelevant as you can get. There’s not even an announced Democrat challenger yet. Safe R


Max Baucus is out and the GOP appears poised to win a Senate seat in 14 years. The top Republican is Steve Daines who’s a freshman in the House, though there’s also Champ Edmunds who’s a state Representative. For Democrat candidates there’s current Lt. Governor John Walsh and former Lt. Governor John Bohlinger (who ironically served as a Republican). Seeing the trends it’s not that hard to rate this. Likely R

New Mexico

Tom Udall who’s cousin to Mark Udall of Colorado, doesn’t appear to be in any immediate danger yet. But that could change based on the Obamacare disaster. Safe D (for now)


This race ironically is drawing more attention the gay marriage feud in the Cheney than about Liz Cheney’s actual candidacy. Ultimately Mike Enzi should win this out easy in the primary and the general election. Not even a Democrat candidate yet in a state where the Democrat Party literally holds only 14 out of 90 seats in the state Legislature. Safe R

The Pacific Coast


Mark Begich is in the fight for his political life. The top tier Republican candidate is Lt. Governor Matt Mead, though former Attorney General Dan Sullivan and 2010 nominee Joe Miller are in the ring too. There’s pressure to get Sarah Palin in there too, but I’m really hesitant about supporting her or Joe Miller based on polling I’ve seen. Particularly Joe Miller who did a horrible job campaigning against Lisa Murkowski in 2010. I was initially considering Dan Sullivan, but information has come out that he let a child molester go as Attorney General. For the time being, let things play out before throwing your hat for a candidate. Tossup


Other than the primary between Representative Colleen Hanabusa and appointed incumbent Brian Schatz, not much interesting going on at the moment. Safe D


Like Colorado, this was initially a shoe-in for Jeff Merkley who won by only a point in 2008 which was a Democrat wave year. Now as Obamacare unravels, this isn’t so much the case. There hasn’t been any recent polling so it’s hard to calculate exactly how safe or vulnerable rather Merkley really is. There’s said to be a physician running, but I’ve yet to have an in depth look at the GOP candidates. Likely/Leaning D

And that’s the final part of my updated look at the Senate. Go to my diary page and take a look at the previous diaries if you haven’t already. (Note: I can’t post comments)