This is my first post-hope you like it!I think that many of the critiques raised here and elsewhere about Obama (from his foreign policy naiveté to an excessive ego even for a politician) are head on. However I think people missed one major reason why we shouldn’t want Obama to be elected to the presidency in 2008- the fact that he’ll have an extremely long post presidency in which he’ll be able to either do much trouble to the US or try to get reelected by proxy. Unlike Mccain who, if elected will have by the time he finishes (whether 2012 or 2016) will only a few productive years left Obama, assuming that he serves two terms (as I will show in a later post his reelection in 2012 is almost certain if he is chosen in 2008) will finish the presidency at the age of 54-55 younger then that of many presidents when starting their first term. In other words Obama is likely have in front of him (at least) another 25 to 30 years of productive life- far more then can be occupied in writing his memories (especially for such an experienced self biographer) . What will such an ambitious person do with all of this time?Thinking about it deeply it seems to me that there are two likely routes that Obama will take (depending upon how his presidency goes) both of which seem to make sure that we’ll be extremely sorry if he is elected in 2008- and a very good reason why to do everything to prevent his election now.
The Jimmy Carter route- repentance (at our expense) one way that Obama’s presidency will go (and the most likely one in my opinion) is mediocre to bad with quite a few foreign and domestic policy mishaps and disasters. Under such a situation Obama (as many presidents in this situation) would have a great incentive after his presidency to find ways to improve the verdict of history through his later deeds. Given that the best way to do that is through foreign policy Obama is likely (through an ‘Obama center’ or something similar no doubt) to try to use his interpersonal skills and personal in order to promote various foreign policy goals that he prefers .Accordingly whoever feared how soon (due to his advancing age) would the US manage without Jimmy Carter’s pontifications and tendency to obstruct the sitting presidents (of both parties) foreign policy on various issues could rest assured in this case- Carter will have an heir in Obama. Even worse, given Obama’s ‘citizen of the world’ cosmopolitan tendencies (and skin color-an enormous plus in the various diversity conscious international bodies) he may be able for this quest at repentance even to break the hurdle most American politicians usually have and embark in a second career like those of many failed European and Asian politician- becoming the head of one or another hot air international body. How about U.N General Secretary Obama? Accordingly in this case Obama is likely to become over the next 25-30 years a major throne on the side of the US in his quest for redemption. *The Bill Clinton Route- power again though wife *the other possibility is of course that Obama’s presidency will be seen by a significant segment of the public (with the massive aid of the MSM in a Camelot mode) in the same way that of Bill Clinton’s was seen by many democrats till the 2008 primaries- as an average to good presidency that despite an occasional failure of which they wouldn’t object (after a bit of an hiatus) to have some more. Now Barack Obama himself couldn’t run (thanks to the 22nd amendment ) but he isn’t the only one in the Obama family who could try. Much of Obama post presidency will be occupied in this case in a quest for achieving the presidency again –by (and through) Michelle Obama. Before you start laughing please remember ( especially those readers who voted in 1992) that no one thought seriously in 1992 that in electing Bill Clinton we were merely paving the route to a Hillary Clinton presidential candidacy (which may yet become true in 2016-never underestimate the Clintons tenacity…).
Michelle Obama would fit the bill perfectly- her election would be described as (in the terms so loved by the democrats) ‘pathbreaking’ ‘role model’ ‘breaker of glass ceilings’ – the first election of a Black women. She has after all a life story (described from the democratic perspective with the positive glossing appropriately added when needed) almost as good as Baracks- the descendent of slaves, born to a working class family who through her work & skills worked her way up through Princeton and a Harvard law degree balancing a successful career (where for many years she made more then Barack) with bringing up an adorable family (both girls conveniently in their mid to late teens by 2016). While not an orator at Baracks caliber she certainly is quite good in rousing audiences and is quite liked already within the black community- a great power base to have within the democratic party. Add to that the support she’d probably get from women in general & power the Obama will still probably yield within the democratic party in this scenario and we are looking at a political duo (by say 2018) as formidable as the Clintons. As for political experience-well that wasn’t too big a hurdle for her husband (assuming he’s elected in 2008). It can also be swiftly remedied by running for say a senate seat in Illinois (Dick Durbin is already now in his seventies it should be noticed) and working the ropes for a few years. Accordingly as early as 2024 (or even 2020) we may have another attempt by Barack Obama to return to the white house through his wife which if successful will mean that we’ll have to endure him and all that’s involved (a co-president with a chip on her shoulder, accusation of racism/sexism whenever criticizing wife/him etc.) for at least another four years.