I have been thinking lately about that political truism that pops up every time someone offers a prediction on any upcoming election based on information and polls as we have them at the time – ‘the election is not today’.
This is, naturally, exactly as it should be. Nothing stands still, least of all in politics. A lot can change, even at this late stage, so when Dems these days whistle past the graveyard with their obligatory reminders that they might turn things around in time, they’re not really wrong. Yes. America will not be on Election Day where it is today.
That said, though, which way is it moving?
This rebellion has been going on for a while. Every step of the way, when I was reminded that the election was a long way off, my gut told me that the wave hadn’t crested yet. Certainly, unforseen events can play anyone for a fool, but there were also the not-unforseen ones to consider. Knowing for example, that, whatever else His One-ness did up to November, he would NEVER get his foot off of business and taxpayers so the economy could begin to recover, it was a safe bet that unemployment would not improve.
More recently, Obamacare popularity was not improving, either, and it seemed a safe bet that the rate increases that would have to take place when the 6 month mark regulations went into effect, would not help it any. It hasn’t.
For things to break the Dem way by November, something has to dissipate the anger. At this point, it is hard to see what might.
And, failing that, it can only continue to build. I don’t think even the more optimistic conservatives like myself are appreciating yet how big this thing might be. Still think the Senate is out of reach?
Remember – the election isn’t tomorrow.