10-8-08 Gallup poll shows 11 point lead for ZerObama. However, a closer look at the Demographics shows the following:
Democrats 87-8 for ZerObamaRepublicans 88-9 for McCainIndys 44-42 for Obama
The only way it’s Zero by 11 is if Dems outnumber Republicans by 10 points. The last two elections broke down this way:
2004 37R-37D-26I2000 39D-35R-26I
I know there will probably be more Dems than Repubs this year, BUT THERE IS NO WAY there will be 10% more. Also, Gallup has McCain winning whites only 50-42(Historical average for Repubs since 1976 is 55-42, while Bush beat Gore 55-44 and Kerry 58-41). I have to beleive McCain will get at least 55% and probably close to 60%. Finally, his sample Shows whites being 72.5% of the electorate when they were 77% in 2004 and 78% in 2000. Remember, even if blacks increase there turnout by 50%, which is not going to happen, that only amounts to about a net of 2-2.5%. Your thoughts?