Diary

2010 Should Be A Defensive War; Looking Towards 2012 With A Grin

In 2012, the Democrats will have 23 Senate seats to defend. The Republicans will have 9. Do the math.

In 2012, Obama will have a record to compare to his rhetoric. Even the MSM, try as they may, is not impervious to the stubbornness of facts.

By 2012, Obama and the Democrats will be the established power. The will become the antagonists of the the contrarians, conspiratorialists, the malcontents and the rebellious youth.

There is no monolithic Republican Party or monolithic conservative movement. Every election presents new variables and no past election provides the road map for the next. We are not going to radically change the opinions of the public in one year, but maybe three. Maybe. Politics, like life, is a series of moments. We can choose to seize them or not. We have three years to cultivate and recruit young leaders and new voters for what could be an epic election. We have three more years to educate, enlighten and inform the body politic.

Now is a time to fight a defensive war and do what we must to stop the liberal onslaught. Filibuster, delay, blockade, derail, delay and then delay some more. We simply don’t have the numbers or the opportunities to go on the offensive. Fire breathers should not be looking to perform mriacles oevernight, but they should be looking at this:

2012 – A presidential election with a sitting president who will undoubtedly have failed to deliver on hundreds of promises.

2012 – The following Senate seats up for grabs:

DEMOCRAT

Diane Feinstein – CA
Tom Carper – DE
Bill Nelson – FL
Daniel Akaka – HI
Ben Cardin – MD
Kennedy Seat – MA
Debbie Stabenow – MI
Amy Klobucher – MN
Claire McCaskill – MI
Jon Tester – MT
Ben Nelson – NE
Bob Menendez – NJ
Jeff Bingaman – NM
Hillary Clinton Seat – NY
Kent Conrad – ND
Sherrod Brown – OH
Bob Casey – PA
Sheldon Whitehouse – RI
Jim Webb – VA
Maria Cantwell – WA
Robert Byrd – WV
Herb Kohl – WI
Bernie Sanders – VT
Joe Lieberman – CT

A lackluster McCain won five of those states outright and lost three by small margins. Aside from seats in traditional Red states (WV, VA, MT …), there are seats in states that have the potential to trend Red (MI, MN…) and just some piss poor Senators in others (OH, RI, WA…)

REPUBLICANS

Jon Kyl – AZ
Dick Lugar – NV
Olympia Snowe – ME
Roger Wicker – MI
John Ensign – NV
Bob Corker – TN
Orrin Hatch – UT
John Barasso – WY
Hutchinson’s Seat –TX

The only states that Obama carried were Nevada and Maine and although you may despise Snowe, both are extremely popular. The other states are very Red. 2012 is the year for the offensive.

More good news. 2010 could be a good year for governors. The focus, on both sides, has been on Obama and his agenda, as it should. But its a becoming more evident that Democrats are going to get crushed in the gubernatorial races. Gubernatorial races have different dynamics, local flavors and are not necessarily reliant on national trends. Look at the Cook Report, which is no friend of Republicans. Here.

Despite his bias, he has no Republican seats leaning Dem and three Dem seats leaning Republican. Lingle is very popular, Oklahoma is Oklahoma and McDonnell’s numbers have been great in Virginia. Corzine is in trouble. Patterson and Patrick are definately not solid Dems. We may be in trouble in a few races, but the tide is most certainly with us.

While we may not get ideal candidates everywhere, this shapes up well for the census and redistricting. It also provides a great bulwark against Obama’s election machine in 2012.

There is plenty of work to do in the general races and the gubernatorial front, not just 2010 Senate primary races. 2012 could be epic and not because we looked to the past and tried to re-live 1980, but because we diligently, carefully and honestly looked at the landscape and looked towards the future and prepared appropriately.